Below The Beltway

Newt Gingrich is getting closer to becoming a candidate for the 2008 Republican nomination:

Former House speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) expects to run for president in 2008 if the contest for the Republican nomination still seems wide open late next year, he said yesterday.

In remarks that were critical of both parties’ recent performance, Gingrich told a luncheon group of scholars and reporters at the Brookings Institution that he will make a decision in the fall of 2007 about running.

“If at that point there’s still a vacuum . . . then we’ll probably do something,” Gingrich said, adding that his policy pronouncements have more weight if he is seen as a potential presidential candidate. “If you’re interested in defining the idea context and the political context for the next generation of Americans, which I am, the most effective way to do that is to be seen as potentially available.”

Gingrich’s entry would shake up a Republican presidential field that now includes Sens. George Allen (Va.), Bill Frist (Tenn.) and John McCain (Ariz.). Many Republicans still revere Gingrich for engineering the GOP’s takeover of Congress in 1994, though members of his own party pushed him to resign in 1998 after his drive to impeach President Bill Clinton cost them seats in that year’s election.

And it looks like he’ll be running like the maverick he was in 1994:

“We have a choice between those who are failing to deliver and those who are unthinkable,” he said, adding that he would put “even money” on the Democrats taking back the House this fall. “Neither party currently is where the country is.”

Gingrich also took a parting shot at Rep. Tom DeLay (R-Tex.), who retired from Congress this week after two of his top aides and a close associate, former lobbyist Jack Abramoff, pleaded guilty to corruption charges. Although DeLay embraced the nickname “The Hammer” while serving as both majority whip and majority leader, Gingrich said he favors a more tolerant form of leadership.

“The Gingrich model of an idea-led, contentious majority . . . is a lot better than a model of ‘The Hammer.’ A hammer is a relatively dumb symbol,” he said, adding that now that DeLay is gone, “the House will become healthier with every passing week. You’ll see an emergence of an idea-led Republican majority. The question is whether they’ll do it fast enough to save the majority.”

Personally, I doubt it, but that could end up being the best thing that ever happened to the GOP. Just like Bill Clinton benefited from having a Republican majority in Congress, the Republicans could benefit if they just sit back and let Pelosi, et al make fools of themselves for two years. Of course, Bill Clinton was a political master and their are very few Republicans that have his skills. Like him or not, Gingrich is one of them.

James Joyner thinks that a Gingrich nomination would ensure a Democratic victory:

I would welcome a Gingrich candidacy because it would force a discussion of some interesting ideas. A Gingrich nomination, however, would likely insure a Democratic president come 20 January 2009. He is both too undisciplined for a long campaign and possessed of some horrible personal baggage that would cause even large segments of his base to cringe.

Perhaps, but that brings up two points. First, its been a long time since Gingrich was forced to resign from the House due, largely, to that “personal baggage”; times have changed and people have moved on. I don’t think his past would have the same impact it did back then. Second, when you look at the current crop of potential Republican nominees from John McCain all the way to George Allen, I can’t say that I see any one of them capable of beating the inevitable Democratic nominee in 2008. A campaign centered around a candidate who had genuine ideas instead of staff-written sound bites would actually force her to work for it.

Update: Professor Bainbridge adds this thought about a Gingrich campaign:

Could he win the general election? I doubt it, but at least we’d go down with a candidate worth supporting.

Is the good Professor right ? Maybe, but stranger things have happened in American politics. And, in the end, I’d rather lose with Newt Gingrich than win with John McCain.