It certainly seems like Israel is planning something big that would happen very soon:
BEIRUT, Lebanon (CNN) — Thousands of Israeli troops are massing on the Lebanese border as Lebanon’s president warned Friday his army is “ready to defend” the country should Israel launch a full-scale ground invasion.
The Israel Defense Forces said it was calling up to 6,000 troops for reinforcements along the border as leaflets were dropped urging Lebanese residents to leave their homes and move north of the Litani River 25 miles (40 kilometers) from the Israeli borde
And then there’s this:
The IDF was gearing up for a large-scale ground incursion into Lebanon on Friday. Thousands of reservists were being mobilized to the North throughout Friday to beef up forces stationed in the area in preparation for a possible operation.
In total, three to four ground divisions will be operating along the Lebanese front.
Captain Ed speculates on what the consequences of an Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon might be.
For the Lebanese:
The Lebanese government has warned that it will meet an Israeli invasion with the Lebanese Army, apparently in alliance with the Hezbollah terrorists the IDF wishes to crush. That will create circumstances that would almost require the Israelis to start hitting a broader range of targets in Lebanon.
Syria:
Syria has at least one division poised on the border, and some predict an Israeli invasion could trigger one from Syria as well. A look at the map shows that reasoning to be quite valid. Syria at one point had friends all around and its pick of resupply routes, but no longer. Turkey, a member of NATO and a putative US ally, lies to the north, along with a lot of ethnic Kurds that do not much like the Assad regime. Jordan, another US ally, lies to the south, along with Israel. To the east used to be an Iraq led by their Ba’athist cousins, but now has an American military contingent of 135,000 battle-hardened troops. Their only outlet comes through Lebanon to the Mediterranean, and if Israel takes control, the Syrians are bottled up, and they know it.
And Iran:
If Syria comes into the battle, don’t expect the Iranians to do much about it, at least not explicitly. Ahmadinejad will talk tough, but his military can barely defend Iran, let alone launch offensive operations against Israel.
All this comes as Secretary of State Rice is headed to the region:
JERUSALEM, July 21 — With the Israeli military girding for a possible ground offensive into southern Lebanon, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice prepared Friday to undertake a diplomatic mission but ruled out an immediate cease-fire that she said would amount to a “false promise” of peace.
In a news conference in Washington, Rice rejected any solution that would allow the Lebanese Shiite Muslim group Hezbollah to resume “terrorist” activities that she said threaten Israel, jeopardize the survival of Lebanon’s democratic government and inflict widespread misery on the people of the region.
One thing is clear; any solution to this crisis that results in anything resembling the status quo ante bellum would be a failure. Hezbollah has been a problem for Israel for nearly 25 years now and there’s no reason they should have to continue to suffer from constant attack from a terrorist army on their northern border.
