That’s the claim made in this New York Post article:
July 24, 2006 — IT’S early in the game yet, but it’s becoming undeniable: Rudy Giuliani will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008 - as the clear front-runner.For months, the media have treated their favored candidate, maverick Sen. John McCain, as the man to beat. But the basis wasn’t the polls, but the now-clearly-mistaken assumption that Rudy wouldn’t run - plus a willful adherence to a false storyline that social conservatives could never accept a Giuliani candidacy.
Yet the polls show that Rudy is the favorite not just of Republicans, but of conservatives. And my recent conversations - on and off the record - with state-level GOP activists shows that these folks range from enthusiastic to at least open to America’s Mayor making a run for the Oval Office.
The primary evidence for this assertion ? Polls, of course:
* Just last week, Gallup released a poll showing that four out of 10 Republicans consider “front-runner” McCain to be an “unacceptable” candidate. And he does worst with self-described conservatives, half of whom deem him unacceptable. But 73 percent of Republicans call Rudy “acceptable.”
* But Rudy’s got a problem in the South, right? Wrong. At least not in Georgia or Florida, according to work by Strategic Vision, a GOP polling firm not affiliated with any ‘08 campaign. In Florida, Rudy led McCain 39 percent to 28 percent in a June poll. In Georgia, Rudy leads 27 percent to 22 percent.
The article also claims that these same polls show that Giuliani’s supposed negatives — his position on abortion and gay rights and his history of marital infidelity — would not have a significantly negative impact on voters opinions, and that Rudy would do better in a hypothetical race against Hillary Clinton than John McCain.
And that’s what all of this is right now, hypothetical. Would Giuliani be a serious contender if he ran for the 2008 nomination ? Most certainly. Is he the frontrunner in any sense of the word ? Not in any sense that means anything. We are talking about polls that were taken nearly two years before any actual voting and long before any campaigning, including negative campaigning, actually starts. How Giuliani will stand after the race really begins is still an open question. Additionally, by comparing Giuliani almost exclusively to McCain, the article ignories the likelihood that a candidate from the right, such as George Allen, would pose just as serious a threat to a Giuliani candidacy as would the senior Senator from Arizona.
However, for what its worth, if the GOP does indeed come down to Rudy Giuliani vs. John McCain, I have no doubt about who I’d rather see at the head of the ticket. And it isn’t John McCain.
H/T: Outside The Beltway
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July 24th, 2006 at 9:15 pm
It’ll be a cold day in a hot place when Rudy gets the nomination.
July 24th, 2006 at 10:17 pm
Rudy’s my #2, behind Newt Gingrich. And had I not heard about how much of a supply-side conservative he was, I never would have said that.
Rudy is fairly libertarian, when you get right down to it. And that’s not that he’s just libertine, he’s a serious fiscal conservative. He doesn’t have the “moderate” downside that someone like McCain has, but he’s got the goodwill to sway the moderate voters.
July 24th, 2006 at 11:28 pm
Jeff,
Stranger things have happened. Eight years of GWB without a designated successor means anything could happen. And, quite honestly, those elements of the GOP that would reject someone like Giuliani out-of-hand don’t hold the power they once did.
July 24th, 2006 at 11:33 pm
Brad,
For the moment, I’d probably place Rudy at # 3 behind Newt and George Allen. The main reason I’m giving Allen a chance is because I lived in Virginia while he was Governor and Senator and have been at least somewhat pleased, which is saying alot when you come to politicians.
Rudy concerns me only because I grew up in New Jersey and knew NYC politics well. As U.S. Attorney, Rudy did things I both like and hate. As Mayor of NYC, its much the same.
I think there are some out there who think he can run as the Mayor of 9/11, but 9/11 will be 7 years in the past by the time 2008 comes along. Depending on how the War on Terror goes between now and then, that will either be a good or bad thing.
July 25th, 2006 at 4:11 pm
Of course you endorse Rudy Giuliani, because as a RepubliKKKan you love the fact that he promotes incompetent and corrupt crackers like Bernard Kerik, but can’t stand to let a black man walk down New York’s streets without having him shot at and/or sodmoized with a plunger.