Below The Beltway

The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll seems to indicate an attitude among the American public that is so negative that it could a a threat to any incumbent running for re-election this year:

WASHINGTON - With congressional midterm elections less than four months away, the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds that candidates will be facing a public that has grown increasingly pessimistic, as nearly two-thirds don’t believe life for their children’s generation will be better than it has been for them, and nearly 60 percent are doubtful the Iraq war will come to a successful conclusion.

And there’s more pessimism: Among those who believe the nation is headed on the wrong track, more than 80 percent say it’s part of a longer-term decline.

As is usually the case, these poll numbers show that the public is far more pessimistic than reality justifies. But that doesn’t matter. In politics, perception is reality. The reality that exists in 2006 is one that includes a large segment of the public that is convinced that the nation is moving in the wrong direction and that there’s little that anyone can do about it. One would think, and MSNBC contends, that this is potentially good news for Democrats and bad news for Republicans, but is that really the case ? If the public really does think that the nation is on the wrong track and that we’re in a permanent decline (and I would contend that the evidence available to anyone indicates that both of these perceptions is absolutely false, but, as I said, that doesn’t matter), then why would they think that voting for a Democrat is likely to accomplish something that voting for a Republican wouldn’t ? If anything, people who feel like this are more likely than not to stay home on Election Day in the belief, not entirely irrational, that it really doesn’t matter who they vote for.

Clearly, though, Americans are worried about the future, and there are many things going on deserving of our concern. Terrorism, war in the Middle East, an uncertain economy. The perception, however, that the future will be worse than the present or past, however, is entirely a matter of psychology. People are taking what they know now, and projecting it into the future. If history has taught anything, though, it is that the future seldom turns out the way we think it will. For better or worse, though, those perceptions are what will decide the 2006 elections.