That certainly seems to be a plausible conclusion, giving the analysis in this National Review column:
In Communist societies, the fall of a dictator is often marked by a public statement about the dictator?s failing health that (a) doesn?t make sense, and (b) is not delivered by the dictator himself. That?s what we saw on Monday night, when Cuban dictator Fidel Castro issued a ?letter to the people? in which he explains that he had suffered intestinal bleeding due to stress, needed an operation, and would be in bed for several weeks. The missive was coldly Orwellian in how little it said about Castro ? and in how much detail it gave about those who were now ?temporarily? assuming power.
The next day another Cuban official read a more entertaining letter in which Castro purports to explain (again in pure Newspeak) that because of the imminent threat from the United States, the details of his health are now a state secret. But there?s only one detail about Castro?s health that could possibly be a state secret: that he?s dead.
The same conclusion is reached here:
the events to date in Cuba strongly suggest that a fierce internal struggle is now going on and that Raul’s absence from the airwaves is ample evidence that he is definitely not in control and cannot muster even a temporary consensus.
Politics in dictatorships rely heavily on the nuances of public appearances to demonstrate who has power and who doesn’t, information that is crucial to provide direction for those who are part of the ruling system but not part of the inner circles of power. Dictatorships require a public face of unchallengeable unity and cannot withstand public displays of infighting. For that reason, the #1 priority for any would-be successor are fawning public appearances and blanket media coverage focused on him in order to demonstrate to all that he has emerged as the unchallenged center of power. It is all orchestrated, and none of it is “news.” If others share the stage, this means that the struggle is continuing but is stalemated and a public face of collective unity is necessary to prevent the regime from collapsing for lack of someone in control. But eventually there must be a Number 1.
It is true that things out of Havana have been strangely silent since Monday. If it is true, though, all I want to know is who’s throwing the party ?.
H/T: Vodkapundit
