The dust has barely settled on the results of the 2006 mid-term elections and Republicans are already trying to figure out how they can take back the House and/or Senate in two years. Right now, the odds don’t look too good.
As the 2006 congressional campaign fades from memory, the 2008 Republican campaign to retake the House and Senate will get underway in coming months.
This year, scandal and a strong anti-GOP tide were fortuitous forces for Democrats, who picked up seats that were squarely in Republican territory. Those seats are likely to be top prospects for Republicans to recapture in 2008.
In contrast, Democratic gains in swing districts in the Midwest and Democratic-leaning districts in the Northeast will be much tougher for Republicans to seize.
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On the Senate side, the GOP faces more trouble. The Republicans need at least one seat — and maybe two, depending on who wins the presidential race — to take back the upper chamber. But while 12 Democrats are up for reelection in 2008, 22 Republicans are.
Only a few Democrats and Republicans, however, are considered vulnerable. Still, Republicans could be buffeted by a string of retirements that would make the field more competitive. As of now, the two most vulnerable Democratic senators appear to be Tim Johnson (S.D.) and Mary Landrieu (La.), while the most vulnerable Republicans are Wayne Allard (Colo.), Norm Coleman (Minn.) and John E. Sununu (N.H.).
Add to that the fact that the 2008 Congressional elections will be heavily influenced by what’s happening at the top of the ticket and the probability of a take-back in 2008 seems slim indeed.
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