George Will argues that Senator Barak Obama better run now if he wants to be President:
New Hampshire was recently brightened by the presence of Barack Obama, 45, who, calling the fuss about him “baffling,” made his first trip in 45 years to that state, and not under duress. Because he is young, is just two years distant from a brief career as a state legislator and has negligible national security experience, an Obama presidential candidacy could have a porcelain brittleness. But if he wants to be president — it will not be a moral failing if he decides that he does not, at least not now — this is the time for him to reach for the brass ring. There are four reasons why.
Among the reasons Will gives in favor of Obama running now the most interesting is this one:
[T]he odds favor the Democratic nominee in 2008 because for 50 years it has been rare for a presidential nominee to extend his party’s hold on the presidency beyond eight years. Nixon in 1960 came agonizingly close to doing so (he lost the popular vote by 118,574 — less than a vote per precinct — and a switch of 4,430 votes in Illinois and 24,129 in Texas would have elected him) but failed. As did Hubert Humphrey in 1968 (he lost by 510,314 out of 73,211,875 votes cast), Gerald Ford in 1976 (if 5,559 votes had switched in Ohio and 7,232 in Mississippi, he would have won) and Al Gore in 2000 (537 Florida votes). Only the first President Bush, in 1988, succeeded, perhaps because the country desired a third term for the incumbent, which will not be the case in 2008. So the odds favor a Democrat winning in 2008 and, if he or she is reelected, the Democrat nominated in 2016 losing.
I hadn’t really thought of this, but Will is probably right. Unless Bush makes an amazing turnaround in the next year and a half, which is unlikely, whoever the GOP nominee is will have a huge albatross around his or her neck. The public already made clear in November it’s desire for change, and that is only going to become more pronounced as 2008 approaches.
December 15th, 2006 at 11:36 am
[...] Below the Beltway: Unless Bush makes an amazing turnaround in the next year and a half, which is unlikely, whoever the GOP nominee is will have a huge albatross around his or her neck. The public already made clear in November it?s desire for change, and that is only going to become more pronounced as 2008 approaches. [...]