Much is being said about the Gartner Group report which asserts that the number of bloggers will level off in 2007:
BOSTON - Could blogging be near the peak of its popularity? The technology gurus at Gartner Inc. believe so. One of the research company’s top 10 predictions for 2007 is that the number of bloggers will level off in the first half of next year at roughly 100 million worldwide.
The reason: Most people who would ever dabble with Web journals already have. Those who love it are committed to keeping it up, while others have gotten bored and moved on, said Daryl Plummer, chief Gartner fellow.
“A lot of people have been in and out of this thing,” Plummer said. “Everyone thinks they have something to say, until they’re put on stage and asked to say it.”
That’s no knock on blogging. Plummer noted that this leveling-off dynamic plays out all the time, though it often comes as a bit of a surprise when it hits things that had achieved quick popularity.
James Joyner points out that, given what it takes to maintain a blog on a regular basis, this really isn’t all that surprising:
Maintaining a decent blog requires a lot of effort and the return on that investment is small, indeed, for most people. Unless one derives a lot of pleasure from researching and writing, which relatively few people do, then the rewards of blogging come from ego?having people read and respond to one?s work?and financial. With millions of blogs out there competing for readers, though, it is exceedingly hard to build up a significant readership. And few of those blogs, even, will make even minimum wage for the hours invested.
Yes, ego does play at at least some small role in why people blog. It’s reassuring to see that someone is actually reading what you write, and when the take the time to comment it’s all the better. But, that’s not the main reason I blog. I do this because I enjoy writing, and because I enjoy discussing current events. I didn’t get into it expecting to make any money at all (although a few Amazon referrals would be nice — hint, hint), so all the returns for me are non-economic.
At the same time, though, it does take an investment of time and, at some point, it’s clear that people can get burned out or just too busy to blog. Stephen Green and Chad Dotson are two favorites of mine that have, unofficially in the Vodkapundit’s case it seems, hung out the “closed for business” sign and there are countless numbers of smaller blogs that haven’t been updated in years and probably never will be again.
I plan on continue blogging for as long as circumstances permit me to, even if nobody else notices I’m here.
