The way things are shaping up, both the Republican and Democratic Presidential nominations could effectively be over by February 5, 2007. That’s because many large states are in the process of moving their Presidential primaries to that day. Yesterday, California became the first large state to officially do so
California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) signed legislation yesterday moving the state’s presidential primary to Feb. 5, 2008, a change that could lead to the earliest and biggest single-day test of candidate strength ever.
And New Jersey isn’t far behind:
TRENTON, March 15 ? The Assembly voted on Thursday to move New Jersey?s presidential primary up to Feb. 5 in an effort to have more say in who runs for president, although some political experts say so many states have joined the stampede that it might be better to hold it later.
These two moves are only the first part of what could quickly become a stampede that will transform the race for the Democratic and Republican nominations in 2008 from a marathon into a sprint. While it’s unclear what the impact of the early primaries will be, it seems obvious that it will benefit candidates such as Clinton, Obama, McCain, and Giuliani who have the ability to raise alot of money in a short period of time. It could also benefit a candidate like Giuliani who is unlikely to do well in states like New Hampshire and South Carolina but who will have an advantage over McCain and Romney in states like California, New Jersey, and New York, which is also considering moving it’s primary to February 5th.
In either case, it’s clear that, by this time next year if not sooner, we will most likely know who the Democratic and Republican nominees will be.
Update: Jason Pye reports that Georgia is likely to move it’s primary to 2/5/08 as well.
