The top three Democratic candidates are tied in the latest Iowa poll:
Less than six months before Iowa voters open the 2008 presidential nomination battles, the Democratic contest in the Hawkeye State is a deadlock, with Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards in a virtual tie for first place, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
While Clinton has a clear and consistent lead over Obama in national polls, with Edwards generally running a distant third, the contours of the campaign in Iowa appear far different. Edwards’s strong base of support, built on the foundations of his second-place finish in the state’s precinct caucuses in 2004, has turned Iowa into the most competitive early state for the Democratic field.
As is the case nationally, Clinton gains from being seen as the strongest leader and the most electable contender. But in a state where retail politics can be crucial, she lags far behind her main rivals in voters’ rankings of the most likable candidate.
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In the poll, 27 percent said they would vote for Obama, 26 percent for Clinton and 26 percent for Edwards. The only other Democrat to register in double digits was Bill Richardson, the governor of New Mexico, at 11 percent. Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (Del.) and Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich (Ohio) trailed at 2 percent, and Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (Conn.) at 1 percent.
Former senator Mike Gravel (Alaska) did not get any support among the 500 likely voters in the Post-ABC News survey, conducted by telephone between July 26 and July 31. The results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.
Clinton is seen, as I’ve said, as being the inevitable nominee. A stumble in Iowa, though, could change that.
As i have been saying, clintons nomination in no longer inevitable. You can debate about her chances but it is not locked up. This has been the second state by state poll in a row that shows Obama gaining on her. Edwards must cling to iowa for his life. Both Clinton and Obama could take a hit in Iowa and still go in to New Hampshire and South Carolina in very good condition.
This poll has sealed John Edwards’ fate. He staked his entire campaign on Iowa; it is over.
Actually, for us political junkies, this is no surprise.
But, at least we will start to see less of that pitiful man. Unless, of course, his wife decides to run for him.
You can read my take at Copious Dissent – Your Daily Dose of Liberty