Below The Beltway

For reasons that seem entirely unclear, Mitt Romney has invested millions of dollars to gather support in an entirely meaningless straw poll that could entirely destroy his chances of becoming President:

DES MOINES, Aug. 9 — As thousands of Republican activists prepare to descend on Ames, Iowa, tomorrow for the straw poll meant to gauge support for the GOP’s presidential contenders, the event has all the markings of a historic mismatch.

One candidate, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, has assembled an unrivaled operation for the event: a statewide corps of 60 “super-volunteers,” who have been paid between $500 and $1,000 per month to talk him up; a fleet of buses; more than $2 million in television ads in Iowa; a sleek direct-mail campaign; and a consultant who has been paid nearly $200,000 to direct Romney’s straw poll production, which will include barbeque billed as the best in the state.

Facing off against this are a half-dozen candidates whose total Iowa expenditures through the end of June do not match the $1 million Romney had spent by that point, not including his many TV ads. Tommy Thompson, the former Wisconsin governor, advertised in the Denison Bulletin & Review at a cost of $297. Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback has been luring voters to Ames by sending out “brown bracelets” to wear around town (“a great conversation starter with friends and neighbors.”) Rep. Tom Tancredo (Colo.) is offering a tour of Washington — dinner included — to anyone who brings 25 friends to Ames.

It was not supposed to play out this way. Romney’s vast investment in the straw poll was designed to outmuscle former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani and Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) in the GOP’s first real contest of the election, and to give Romney a needed early boost as he works to build national recognition. But his preparation may have been too impressive for his own good. Watching Romney spend so much, Giuliani and McCain dropped out of the straw poll in June. Romney plunged ahead anyway, setting up a mismatch of almost Gulliverian proportions.

And this is where the entirely meaningless part comes in.

The Iowa Straw Poll is, well, not entirely the best predictor of who will be the next President.

In 1987, televangelist and hurricane repellent Pat Robertson beat George H.W Bush in the Iowa Straw Poll. In 1988, George H.W. was elected President, and Pat was back on the 700 Club.

In 1995, Steve Forbes effectively tied Bob Dole. And yet,  Bob Dole ended up winning the GOP nomination and, not without surprise, losing to Bill Clinton in 1996.

So, Romney has invested alot of money in Iowa and hopes for a big showing in the Ames Straw Poll. Considering that two of the three candidates polling above 5% are not actively participating, almost any victory he achieves would seem to be meaningless. And, any candidate (i.e., Ron Paul) who could manage come come in as a close second would probably end up getting more press than Romney himself.