Memo to Mitt Romney:
Before you celebrate your victory in the Ames Straw Poll, and the fact that you’re in the lead in Iowa itself and could very well win the caucus in January, consider this fact:
A source at the DNC reminded me of an interesting piece of history: the Iowa caucus is a great predictor who of who won’t become president. The caucus has only been the country’s first nominating event since 1972, and its record is pretty awful: George H. W. Bush in 1980, Bob Dole and Dick Gephardt in 1988, favorite son Tom Harkin in 1992, Bob Dole again in 1996, and John Kerry in 2004.
In fact, the 2000 election was the only time since 1972 that the non-incumbent victor in Iowa managed to win the presidency — and in that year, both parties’ nominees were Iowa winners.
So why are we paying so much attention to such a meaningless part of the Presidential race ?
August 12th, 2007 at 6:20 pm
Because the media loves a horse race, and believes for some reason that the voters do too.