That certainly seems to be the implication of the latest data from Rasmussen:
If Rudy Giuliani wins the Republican nomination and a third party campaign is backed by Christian conservative leaders, 27% of Republican voters say they’d vote for the third party option rather than Giuliani. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that a three-way race with Hillary Clinton would end up with the former First Lady getting 46% of the vote, Giuliani with 30% and the third-party option picking up 14%. In head-to-head match-ups with Clinton, Giuliani is much more competitive.
Over this past weekend, several Christian conservative leaders indicated they might back a pro-life, third-party, candidate if Giuliani wins the nomination.
The latest poll highlights the potential challenges for Giuliani, but the numbers must be considered in context. A generic third-party candidate may attract 14% of the vote in the abstract at this time. However, if a specific candidate is chosen, that person would likely attract less support due to a variety of factors. Almost all third party candidates poll higher earlier in a campaign and their numbers diminish as election day approaches. Ultimately, of course, some Republicans would have to face the question of whether to vote for Giuliani or help elect a Democrat.
The telephone survey found that 17% of Republicans believe it’s Very Likely conservative leaders would back a Pro-Life candidate if Giuliani is nominated. Another 32% believe it is Somewhat Likely. Among all voters, 22% think a third party approach is Very Likely and another 33% say it’s Somewhat Likely.
Like it or not, a Republican candidate needs the pro-life vote to win the election. If those voters stay home or divert their votes to another candidate in sufficient numbers, it could allow an otherwise weak Democrat to win.
As Rasmussen points out, data like this raises questions about Giuliani’s prime selling point, electibility:
The bigger question for Giuliani might be how this possible challenge from the right might affect perceptions of his electability. Currently, Giuliani is seen as the most electable Republican candidate which helps overcome concerns that some have about his ideology. A survey conducted earlier this month found that 72% of Republicans think Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win the White House if nominated. However, the current survey finds that number falling to 58% if Christian conservatives back a third-party option.
With a third-party option on the table, only 18% of Republicans believe Giuliani would be Very Likely to win the election if nominated. That’s down from 31% in a two-way race.
Among all voters, 49% say Giuliani is at least Somewhat Likely to win a two-way match-up. That falls to 43% with a third party candidate in the mix.
On that note, Stephen Spruiell at NRO raises this interesting possibility:
One of the most interesting possibilities floating around out there is that, after the primaries are over, Paul could offer an antiwar, pro-life, third-party alternative to either Rudy Giuliani or Hillary Clinton (in 1988 Paul ran for president as a member of the Libertarian Party). If his fundraising continues at this pace, he might be tempted to do it. Something tells me it’s a possibility the Clinton camp isn’t exactly dreading.
Frankly, I don’t think it’s likely. First of all, outside of the abortion issue, Ron Paul and the religious wing of the GOP don’t exactly see eye-to-eye. Guys like James Dobson may be anti-abortion, but they are also very much pro-war, and I don’t see them backing a candidate that opposes the Iraq War, at least not at this time. Second, Congressman Paul has given no indication that he has any intention of running as a third-party candidate if he fails to win the Republican Nomination. Finally, as the author correctly notes, any moderately successful third-party run in 2008 would basically guarantee that Hillary Clinton will coast to the Presidency. I’d like to think that Ron Paul would have better things to do in the Fall of `08 than be a stalking horse for the Clintons.
October 6th, 2007 at 8:32 am
[...] this week, I wrote about a recent Rasmussen poll that seemed to indicate fertile ground for a third-party challenge from the … should he get the Republican nomination, a challenge that would most assuredly result in a Democrat [...]