Below The Beltway

Today’s Washington Post reports that the Virginia GOP is close to deciding if it’s 2008 Senate nominee will be selected via a primary or convention, and Tom Davis is hoping it’s a primary:

RICHMOND As Virginia Republican leaders gather this weekend to decide whether to hold a convention or primary to select their nominee for the U.S. Senate, no one will be following the outcome closer than U.S. Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-Va.).

For Davis, the leaders’ decision could help determine whether he will enter the nominating contest that will determine which Republican takes on former governor Mark R. Warner (D) in the general election.

Throughout the summer, much of the focus was on the options Warner had as he considered whether to run for the Senate next year or governor in 2009. But Davis, who is widely regarded as a moderate Republican, also has options that require lots of decisions over the coming weeks.

The first is whether to run for Senate, depending on what happens Saturday. The committee vote will shape the GOP contest for the Senate nomination in the spring.

In a convention, several thousand GOP activists, many driven by their opposition to abortion rights, pack a location to choose the party’s nominee. But in a primary, any Virginian could vote.

Davis has been working hard to secure a primary, which he argues would give the eventual GOP candidate time to build familiarity with voters.

Some conservatives, including former governor James S. Gilmore III (R), are advocating a convention. Gilmore, who is also pondering a bid for the Senate, says that a convention would cost each candidate about $1 million, compared with the $4 million that might have to be spent to win a primary.

And that $3 million saved, Gilmore argues, could be better used in a general election against the sure-to-be well-financed Warner.

Not to mention the fact that a convention would save the taxpayers dollars since it would mean that local governments would not have to run what should be a private party function, selecting a nominee.

For Davis, of course, the advantages of a primary over a convention are easy to see. In a convention, he’d be vulnerable to being overwhelmed by conservatives within the party who don’t exactly see eye-to-eye with in. In a primary he could rely upon his popularity in Northern Virginia to overcome his relative unpopularity among party activists outside of Northern Virginia. On the other hand, as the article points out, Davis would have to outspend Gilmore in a primary to overcome the former Governor’s higher name recognition.

So, the first test of the Davis for Senate campaign will come, as the article points out, on Saturday in Richmond:

Davis should be worried if he fails Saturday to secure a primary. The 84 members of the central committee are fairly plugged into the political realities of Virginia. If Davis can’t persuade them to hold a primary, what makes him think he is going to have an easier time winning over the rank-and-file activists he needs to win a convention?

Frankly, if he fails to get the primary he wants, one wonders if Davis will bother running at all.