Today’s Washington Post reports on a poll of Virginia voters that could indicate some trouble for Virginia Republicans when November 6th rolls around:
Voter approval of the Republican-led Virginia legislature has plunged over the past seven years, and fewer people now see the state as headed in the right direction, according to a new Washington Post poll. Nevertheless, Democrats lack clear advantages on key issues, limiting their hopes of regaining control of the General Assembly next month.
The poll reveals weaknesses for the state’s Republicans and higher overall satisfaction with Democrats, which would benefit Democratic candidates if the Nov. 6 election becomes more a referendum on the GOP than a contest about particular issues. All 140 seats in the legislature are up for grabs, and Democrats need to win four to gain a majority in the Senate and 11 to do so in the House of Delegates.
Democrats have tried to make a case that change is needed, saying that GOP feuding has stalled progress on quality-of-life issues. Legislative Republicans, meanwhile, have held a series of news conferences downplaying their divisions. They say that they would keep taxes low and fight illegal immigration and that they have the better plan to improve Virginia’s schools and health-care system.
The poll suggests that Republicans are burdened by their party’s poor image statewide, which might be partly attributed to President Bush’s low approval ratings and the public’s frustration over traffic issues.
The General Assembly passed a transportation funding bill in February, but Republicans are not getting credit for it. Fifty-six percent of likely voters polled said they disapprove of the way Republicans in the General Assembly do their jobs, compared with 45 percent giving negative ratings to the Democrats.
When asked which party they would like to control the legislature, 50 percent of likely voters said Democrats, and 42 percent said Republicans. (Seven percent volunteered that they would prefer a divided General Assembly.) A bare majority of registered voters, 54 percent, said the state is headed in the right direction, down sharply from 2000, when 71 percent thought so.
As the article goes on to state, however, there are very few specific issues where Democrats have an advantage over Republicans to the extent that they could use it as the basis for a statewide campaign, and no single issue that voters describe as overwhelmingly important:
A third of likely voters call transportation either the state’s most or second-most important issue; that number jumps to more than half in Northern Virginia. Twenty percent highlight jobs and the economy. Four other issues rank closely behind. But when asked what they would base their vote on, about equal percentages describe the economy, immigration, taxes and transportation as “extremely important.”
And, in fact, the one issue that voters seem united on in terms of importance is one where neither party has an advantage:
Transportation remains the most frequently cited problem in the state, and more than six in 10 voters said traffic congestion is a problem where they live. That number rises sharply in Northern Virginia, where more than nine in 10 call it a problem, with three-quarters saying it is a “very serious” concern.
Overall, about a third of likely voters said transportation is “extremely important” to their vote , but neither party seems to have the edge on the issue. Among those prioritizing transportation, 46 percent want the Democrats to control the legislature; 47 percent would prefer the GOP to retain its majorities.
And the Republicans do have an advantage on one issue, immigration:
More than six in 10 voters polled said illegal immigration is a problem in their part of the state, and 36 percent called the immigration issue extremely important. Seventeen percent cited it as one of the top two issues in the state, and two-thirds of those who described it as a top issue want Republicans to stay in control of the legislature.
In the poll, six in 10 voters said they are more likely to support a candidate who advocates state and local measures against illegal immigrants.
But if it becomes a race about party labels, the Republicans have a serious problem:
[I]f the focus turns on party, likely voters regard state Democrats more highly. Kaine remains popular (two-thirds approve of his job performance) and a majority of likely voters, 52 percent, approve of how Democrats in the legislature are handling their jobs. In contrast, legislative Republicans get lower reviews: 40 percent approve.
With three weeks left to go in the campaign, it’s hard to say how 2007 might turn out. If recent history is any guide, then I expect what we will see is Northern Virginia (Fairfax, Loudoun, and even Prince William) turning even more blue. Whether this will be enough to switch party control in one or both houses in Richmond is another question.
