While the nation prepares to spend the next two months or so concentrating on the caucuses in Iowa and the primary in New Hampshire, the real battle for the Republican nomination is taking shape in South Carolina:
In the contest for the Republican presidential nomination, South Carolina, more than perhaps any other early voting state, is shaping up as a pivotal battleground where each of these four candidates believes he has a solid shot of winning. Since 1980, each victor in South Carolina has gone on to become the Republican nominee.
By contrast, in the last four contested Iowa caucuses, the winner of the caucus has gone on to win the nomination only once, in 2000. New Hampshire’s predictive ability hasn’t been much better — they’ve only gone with the ultimate winner twice in the past four contested elections.
So how do things stand in the Palmetto State ?
Well, the latest poll was taken at the end of September, but it shows the following:
Thompson — 21%
Giuliani — 16%
Romney — 16%
McCain — 16%
Huckabee — 11%
Paul — 3%
Hunter — 2%
Brownback — 2%
No Opinion — 13%
It’s literally a four-man race for the top, with Huckabee waiting in the rear.
October 29th, 2007 at 7:07 pm
“It’s literally a four-man race for the top, with Huckabee waiting in the rear.”
That strikes me as very shortsighted. Huckabee is on the rise. Thompson and Romney are on the wane. Giuliani has to count on holding his total through a poor showing in Iowa, which is why I expect him to publicly discount the importance of Iowa, before the Iowa Caucuses. I expect that the media will largely cooperate. If Giuliani wins in New Hampshire, he should remain relatively stable in South Carolina.
Though he will finish better than Giuliani, McCain will not shine in Iowa, either: third would be an optimistic ambition. McCain needs to win or finish a very strong second in New Hampshire, an I don’t think he will. Though he has crept up, Romney and Giuliani lead New Hampshire polls, and also will pour great heaps of money into New Hampshire that McCain doesn’t have.
Romney must win Iowa, into which he must also pour a lot of money in the coming weeks, as he already has. And he needs to be in the top two in NH, and win Michigan where his father was governor in the 60’s. If Thompson has something to sell that people will begin to buy, he’d better show it, pretty soon or he won’t hold.
I think Huckabee will pick up what falls from Romney and Thompson’s support, which will especially be a lot of the unsettled Republican vote if Romney doesn’t win Iowa convincingly. If Romney stumbles, it will be a Giuliani-Huckabee showdown, and Huckabee will just plain swamp Giuliani in South Carolina, where he has the support of former governor David Beasley, the family of late governor Carrol Campbell, and has mopped up in SC straw polls. But, Giuliani will survive for Feb. 5th, where he will win the large states, Huckabee will win the southern states, and Romney will be lucky to keep breathing with support in Western stastes.
Right now, I’d predict a Huckabee-Giuliani contest and a BIG split in The Republican Party. Giuliani would lose the general election without motivated social conservatives, while Huckabee would make it an interesting contest. He would have that support and personal appeal, though he would be fiercely smeared, especially if it involved a Clinton machine, which would also haul out the testimonies of hostile especially Democratic Arkansans.
October 31st, 2007 at 2:43 pm
Huckabee has shown 2nd in Iowa in 2 polls this week. Only one place ti go: FIRST! Now, the leak will begin from Romney, which could become a dam burst, given how soft Republican poll leader support has been, this year. That’s why Romney has to keep attacking Huckabee. I don’t know if it will work, but I don’t know what Romney’s other options are. This month, online alone, Huckabee raised as much money as the entire campaign did, for the 3rd quarter. It’s going to get REAL interesting. Watch Huckabee tonight on both O’Reilly and Hannity & Colmes on FOX News Channel, tonight.