Rudy Giuliani is maintaining a lead in the race for the Republican nomination, but it’s a lead unlike any seen in a Republican race since the days of Ronald Reagan:
For the first time in nearly 30 years, there is no breakaway front-runner for the Republican nomination as the first votes of Campaign 2008 loom, and a new Washington Post-ABC News poll underscores how open the GOP race remains.
Former New York City mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani maintains a double-digit lead over his main rivals, but most of his supporters back his candidacy only “somewhat,” and he has yet to gain momentum among key primary voting groups or to distinguish himself as the best candidate for the party. Adding to the murkiness of the picture is that Republicans continue to be less satisfied with their candidate options than Democrats are with theirs.
In the new poll, a third of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said they would vote for Giuliani if their state’s primary or caucus were held today. That puts him 14 percentage points ahead of Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) and 17 points ahead of former senator Fred D. Thompson (Tenn.).
Eleven percent said they would vote for former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, and 9 percent support former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee.
Not since 1979 has the leading Republican candidate had less than 40 percent support in national polls in the November heading into an election year. That year Ronald Reagan was the early poll leader, as Giuliani is today, and he went on to win the Republican nomination and the presidency.
This year’s GOP race is notable also because the national poll leader does not lead in either of the first two states to hold contests next year. Romney leads in both Iowa and New Hampshire, according to state polls, with New Hampshire appearing exceedingly close.
What this means, of course, is that the GOP race is actually competitive, at least in the early races, in a way that it hasn’t been in a long time. Giuliani is still the frontrunner and, unless he stumbles, the presumptive nominee, but its a long way to the nomination and anything could happen.
November 5th, 2007 at 8:09 am
It seems that either Giuliani or Ron Paul will emerge successful in the nommination.
Sean
http://www.ezcampaigns.com
November 5th, 2007 at 4:30 pm
Ron Paul? You mean the candidate who wins some of the straw polls and none of the scientific ones? Trust me, no one is more cynical of polling then me? However, I do not fool myself into thinking someone who cannot get above the margin of error stands a chance.
Rudy looks to be the favorite, but Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney manage to get the best of both worlds; they hold decent poll numbers, and they each energize their base. Rudy holds poll numbers, Ron energizes his (very small) base, but Rudy is going to have a challenge in the primaries and Ron would get rocked unless his opponent was Dennis Kucinich.