Despite the fact that the Republicans had thought they’d found an issue that would give them an edge in a Northern Virginia that has been trending blue for years, it seems that illegal immigration wasn’t that big an issue at all yesterday:
Voters across Virginia chose candidates in state and local elections yesterday not out of anger over illegal immigration but based on party affiliation, a preference for moderation and strong views on such key issues as residential growth and traffic congestion.
With a few notable exceptions, the trend benefited Democrats and not those who campaigned the loudest for tough sanctions against illegal immigrants.
Fairfax County continued its transformation into solid Democratic territory, with as many as five legislative seats poised to fall out of Republican control. In Loudoun County, Democrats who campaigned on a promise to slow residential growth took over the county board. Even in Prince William County, where the board’s chairman, Corey L. Stewart (R), won easily on a vow to crack down against illegal immigrants, the volatile issue was tempered by the victory of state Sen. Charles J. Colgan (D-Manassas), who had been painted as soft on the issue.
The returns provided the sharpest evidence yet that Democratic gains in recent state elections represented more than a temporary dip in Republicans’ popularity. Yesterday’s initial results showed that a more long-term structural realignment may be occurring and that voters are increasingly drawn by Democrats’ promises to improve schools and ease traffic and away from Republican conservatism on such issues as taxes and social policy, particularly in fast-growing Northern Virginia.
Given the results of elections over the past two or three years — particularly Tim Kaine’s win in 2005 and Jim Webb’s in 2006 — this certainly seems to be the case. The changes in Loudoun County are particularly interesting because they seem to put that County on the same slow-growth path as neighboring Fairfax and leave Prince William County as the only Northern Virginia County still in the hands of the Republican Party.
The big question, of course, is what this means for 2008. From 1968 through 2004, Virginia has been a solidly Republican state in Presidential elections. Next year, though, all that could change. Mark Warner continues to lead Jim Gilmore, the presumptive Republican Senate nominee by a huge margin, and that’s likely to help whoever the Democratic nominee might be.
All is not doomed for the Northern Virginia GOP, of course, but the voters clearly aren’t buying what they’re selling right now.
