Below The Beltway

She may be the front-runner nationally, but voters in Iowa aren’t very impressed with Hillary Clinton:

The top three Democratic contenders remain locked in a close battle in Iowa, with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) seeing her advantages diminish on key fronts, including the questions of experience and which candidate is best prepared to handle the war in Iraq, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Illinois Senator Barack Obama gets the support of 30 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa, compared to 26 percent for Clinton, 22 percent for former senator John Edwards and 11 percent for New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson. The results are only marginally changed from a Post-ABC poll in late July, but in a state likely to set the course for the rest of the nominating process, there are significant signs of progress for Obama — and harbingers of concern for Clinton.

The factors that have made Clinton the clear national front-runner — including her overwhelming leads on the issues of Iraq and health care, a widespread sense that she is the Democrats’ most electable candidate, and her strong support among women — do not appear to be translating on the ground in Iowa, where campaigning is already fierce and television ads have been running for months.

Obama is running even with Clinton among women in Iowa, drawing 32 percent to her 31 percent, despite the fact that the Clinton campaign has built its effort around attracting female voters.

At the heart of the Democratic race has been the dichotomy between strength and experience (qualities emphasized by Clinton, Richardson and Sens. Joe Biden and Chris Dodd) and the ability to introduce a new approach to governing (as Obama and Edwards have promised to do).

Iowa Democrats are tilting toward change: 55 percent reported that a “new direction and new ideas” are their top priority, compared with 33 percent who favored “strength and experience.” That is a shift from July, when 49 percent sought change and 39 percent experience.

Nationally, Clinton is viewed as a candidate of change, winning 41 percent of Democrats who say they are seeking a new direction in a recent Post-ABC poll. But in Iowa, Obama dominates the so-called “change” vote, winning 43 percent of those voters, compared with 25 percent for Edwards and 17 percent for Clinton.

So what happens if Obama wins Iowa ? Clearly, the media will have a field day as the candidates head to New Hampshire, but given  Clinton’s overwhelming lead in all the New Hamshire polls to date, it’s hard to see how he could turn a win in Iowa into anything worthwhile in enough time to make a difference.