Before the holiday, the Washington Post reported that Republican Delegate Bob Marshall may run against Jim Gilmore for the GOP Senate nomination in 2008:
Del. Robert G. Marshall (R-Prince William) said today he is considering entering the race for the GOP nomination for the U.S. Senate.
In an interview, Marshall said several party activists are urging him to challenge former governor James S. Gilmore III ( R), who announced his candidacy Monday.
Marshall, known for his conservative views on social issues, called a potential Senate bid an “interesting possibility.” He added “certain things have to fall in place” before he makes a final decision but said he is “certainly looking at” the race.
“I can replicate the Reagan Revolution,” said Marshall, who led the fight against the recently approved transportation bill and was a leader in winning passage of a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage and civil unions. “I have not voted for taxes. I am consistent on the right to life. I have done things to help senior citizens. I am not tied to developers. I get a 100 percent rating from environment groups. How many Republicans can do that and are conservative?”
Marshall, who was reelected this year with 58 percent of the vote, noted Gilmore has said he would not outlaw abortion during the first trimester. Marshall also took a swipe at Del. Christopher B. Saxman (R-Staunton), who is also considering entering the race. Marshall said Saxman “strays from the conservative line.”
GOP sources say Marshall is looking for a political strategist with experience running a statewide campaign. Marshall declined to comment, saying “I can’t talk about that.”
Marshall would certainly appeal to the more conservative elements of the Virginia GOP in a way that Gilmore and even Saxman wouldn’t; but there are two problems with that.
First, if the last three years or so of electoral politics in Virginia have proven anything, they’ve proven that conservative candidates don’t do well in Northern Virginia in statewide elections — and without decent support in Northern Virginia, you’re not going to win statewide. Nominating Marshall may make some conservatives feel good, but it’s not necessarily going to be what’s needed to win election in a state that’s elected Tim Kaine and Jim Webb in successive years, and put Democrats like Chap Peterson in the State Senate.
Second, I don’t quite understand why Marshall would want to be a sacrificial lamb and put himself up in a race that the GOP looks like its going to lose.
November 24th, 2007 at 10:29 am
To respond:
First, Bob Marshall has been a northern Virginia delegate for 16 years. He ran 10 points ahead of his State Senate ticket mates on November 6 (they only won 47%), and he carried southern Loudoun with 51% (Webb, Kaine, and Byrne carried Marshall’s Loudoun precincts in their respective elections).
Second, he’s not up in 2008, so why not?