Congressional Quarterly has a fairly good article taking a look at the state of the 11th District and what might happen if Tom Davis decided not to run:
Whether Davis decides to forge on in 2008 is no small matter to campaign officials in both national parties. Davis — a master strategist who headed his party’s nationwide House campaigns as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) in 2000 and 2002 — has leveraged a relatively centrist image to withstand Democratic gains in the 11th District, located in the Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C. Even though he slipped a bit in 2006, Davis won re-election by a comfortable 12 percentage-point margin.
But a Davis retirement would throw the district up for grabs. While CQ Politics currently rates the race as Safe Republican, that status is predicated on Davis running again. Should he step aside, the rating would be revised to a highly competitive category.
The 11th District has one of the best-educated and wealthiest populations in the country, with the nation’s highest median income at more than $80,000. The most salient demographic fact about the 11th District, though, it that it is the site of an ongoing population boom that has increased its ethnic and partisan diversity, and loosened the strong grip long held by the Republican Party.
George W. Bush carried Fairfax County and city for the Republicans in the 2000 presidential race, but lost those jurisdictions to Democrat John Kerry in 2004; only a stronger showing in the more exurban and conservative Prince William County portion of the district enabled Bush to edge Kerry by 1 percentage point overall in the district’s 2004 vote. The trend was accented in 2006 when 54 percent of 11th District voters supported Democratic challenger Jim Webb over incumbent Republican Sen. George Allen — making the district crucial to Webb’s statewide victory margin of four-tenths of 1 percentage point.
Democratic opponents, of course, have already started lining up, with Leslie Byrne, who Davis defeated in 1994 being the frontrunner among the pack at the moment.
But the real question is what will Tom Davis do ?
Virginia Republican Rep. Thomas M. Davis III has yet to announce whether he will run for an eighth term next year in the state’s 11th District. But Davis has stimulated speculation about his intentions by scheduling a political fundraiser for Wednesday.
Aides to Davis said he does not plan to announce his 2008 decision at the event, but some Davis supporters see the fundraiser as a sign they should keep the faith.
The fundraiser — to be held at the Vienna, Va., home of Geoff Pohanka, president of a local chain of auto dealerships — is the first for his House campaign treasury since Davis’ announcement in October that he would not run next year for the Senate seat left open by retiring five-term Republican John W. Warner
Is the fundraiser a sign that Davis will seek re-election next year ? Quite frankly, Virginia Republicans better hope the answer is yes.
