The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll is out and it shows that there is no clear frontrunner in the Republican race for President:
WASHINGTON — Two weeks before the Iowa caucus, the race for president, while tightening among Democrats, is wide open on the Republican side, highlighting the unusual fluidity of the first campaign for the White House in over a half-century that doesn’t include an incumbent president or vice president.
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows that Rudy Giuliani has lost his national lead in the Republican field after a flurry of negative publicity about his personal and business activities, setting the stage for what could be the party’s most competitive nomination fight in decades.
After holding a double-digit advantage over his nearest rivals just six weeks ago, the former New York City mayor now is tied nationally with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 20% among Republicans, just slightly ahead of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 17% and Arizona Sen. John McCain at 14%. Other polls show Mr. Giuliani’s lead shrinking in Florida, one of the states he has built his strategy around.
With the poll’s margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.1 percentage points, that puts Mr. Huckabee, who had only single-digit support in the previous poll in early November, within striking distance of the leaders. Mr. Romney’s national support also has nearly doubled.
There are several ways that this race could play itself out, but the most intriguing is one in which several candidates — Giuliani, Huckabee, Romney, and McCain being the most likely — trade off primary wins between now and February to the point where Super Tuesday either becomes the decisive battle for the nomination, or ends up being inconclusive. In which case we could be talking about a political pundits fantasy come true; a brokered convention.
