With only three days left until the Iowa Caucuses, and one of those days a holiday that most people will spend watching football, it looks like Mike Huckabee may have peaked too early:
Among Republicans, the poll shows Mitt Romney regaining a slight lead over Mike Huckabee — 27 percent to 24 percent — although the difference is within the poll’s margin of error, making the race a virtual tie.
In the last month, Huckabee had surged from the GOP’s second tier to the front of the pack in Iowa, overtaking Romney, who long had held the lead there. But the former Arkansas governor’s lead appears to have evaporated — he’s fallen 8 percentage points since a poll taken Dec. 3-6.
Meanwhile, in the national polls, Scott Rasmussen shows a virtual tie among five Republican candidates:
For the first time all year, Arizona Senator John McCain finds himself on top with support from 17% of Likely Republican Primary Voters. In the muddled GOP race, McCain becomes the third person to top the poll this month and the fourth since October. But his lead is statistically insignificant–Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are just a point behind at 16% and Rudy Giuliani is two points back at 15%. Slightly off the pace, but still within five points of McCain, is Fred Thompson at 12%. Ron Paul retains his base support at 7%.
One of the more amazing things about the Republican race this year is that it has grown closer and closer over time (see recent daily numbers). In a poll with a four-percentage point margin of error, the fact that five candidates are within five points means there is absolutely no national frontrunner. Adding to the uncertainty is the fact that 13% of Likely Primary Voters remain undecided.
This is all likely to change, of course, once primary season starts on Thursday.
December 31st, 2007 at 11:04 am
Huckabust?
December 31st, 2007 at 12:38 pm
[...] the Huckaboom become a Huckabust? Doug over at Below the Beltway has the [...]
December 31st, 2007 at 1:09 pm
To some extent, as you suggest, the Huckabust was predicable. What would be interesting is no clear winner coming out of the primaries. It has been quite a while since a convention actually had significance. Given how out of control the primaries have become, it might be good for the country to see a real convention. What might be even more interesting would be the selection of compromise candidate who was not even on the ballot. Would that not be wild?
December 31st, 2007 at 3:48 pm
I’m new to this blog. Why do 216 visitors produce 3 comments?