Here is my best educated guess of how things will pan out at the end of the night tonight. This is just order of finish, not percentages. On that end, I think we’ll see some pretty tight numbers between 3rd through 5th place on the Republican side and among the top three on the Democratic side. Depending on turnout, the order could easily be different.
Republicans:
- Mike Huckabee
- Mitt Romney
- John McCain
- Ron Paul
- Fred Thompson
- Rudy Giuliani
Democrats:
- Barack Obama
- Hillary Clinton
- John Edwards
- Bill Richardson
- Joe Biden
- Chris Dodd
Feel free to criticize
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:28 am
A bit of wishful thinking that Paul finishes ahead of both Thompson and Giuliani?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:34 am
Phil,
I’m chalking it up to three things:
1. I think Paul’s supporters are committed enough that they will actually turn out for their candidate. Thompson hasn’t lit a fire under anyone, unless you count a cigar
2. Thompson’s campaign is clearly fading and things like the report in today’s Politico that he will drop out if he finishes below 3rd aren’t going to convince people to caucus for him
3. Giuliani has pretty much been a non-factor in Iowa from the beginning.
Keep in mind that I think that fewer than 2-3 percentage points will separate 3rd through 5th place on the Republican side.
January 3rd, 2008 at 8:26 pm
Irish fer O’Bama
January 3rd, 2008 at 8:29 pm
February 5 is both Super Tuesday and Fat Tuesday.
Super Fat Tuesday!!!