The lastest Rasmussen Reports tracking poll for New Hampshire shows Ron Paul leaping into third place with his first double-digit showing of the race:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Hampshire shows John McCain leading Mitt Romney by five percentage points. It’s McCain 31% Romney 26%. The survey was conducted Friday night, the night following the Iowa caucuses. As noted yesterday on Rasmussen Reports, McCain was one of the big winners on Thursday in Iowa. The current poll is a reversal from a pre-Christmas survey when Romney had a slight advantage.
Ron Paul earns 14% of the vote and Mike Huckabee gets 11% as the only other candidates in double digits. Rudy Giuliani attracts 8% of the vote, Fred Thompson 5%, some other candidate 2%, and 3% are not sure.
McCain and Romney are tied among Republicans likely to vote in the Primary but McCain has an advantage among Independent voters. Independents are still more likely to participate in the Democratic Primary. Still, the survey suggests that 32% of voters in the GOP Primary will be unaffiliated with either major party.
The Republican race remains fluid as nearly a third of GOP voters say they could still change their mind. Sixty-four percent (64%) of McCain’s voters say they are “certain” they will vote for him. Sixty-two percent (62%) of Romney supporters are that certain along with 83% of Ron Paul voters and 66% for Mike Huckabee.
If there’s any state where Ron Paul would be expected to pull of a surprise showing, it would be New Hampshire. So, on some level, seeing numbers like this, assuming that they hold up, isn’t unexpected. At the same time, if Paul does manage to finish ahead of Huckabee it’s certain to get him several good days of media attention.
