For months now, Rudy Giuliani has deflected reporters who pointed out that he was trailing badly in places like Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina by pointing out that he was leading in Florida and telling them to wait until then.
Well, Florida is approaching, and Rudy’s Florida firewall has collapsed:
A new Datamar poll in Florida finds Mike Huckabee leading the Republican presidential primary race with 24% support, followed by Mitt Romney at 20%, Sen. John McCain at 18% and Rudy Giuliani now back in fourth place at 16%.
Two months ago, Giuliani led the GOP race. With little chance of winning the other early states, he has been campaigning nearly non-stop in Florida for several week
McCain will have momentum from yesterday’s win. Huckabee will get momentum from South Carolina, and, if he wins there, Michigan will revive Mitt Romney’s campaign. Rudy’s options are dwindling fast.
Couldn’t happen to a more deserving pol.
Update: As Mike Volpe notes in the comments, there is an Insider Advantage Poll that shows Rudy up by 5%. However:
- The poll’s margin of error is 5.5%, making Giuliani’s lead stastically insignificant; and,
- As with all polls, what’s important isn’t so much what the numbers are today, but where the trends are. Right now the trend in Florida shows Rudy either standing still or falling, and Huckabee and McCain rising.
If Giuliani’s Florida strategy is going to work, he needs to get to work.
January 9th, 2008 at 11:30 am
Anyone who highlights one poll and isolates it is suspect. Who cares? What does the RCP average say? Rudy is the only one with any organization in Florida and besides Romney with any money.
You obviously don’t like Rudy, however isolating one poll and treating it as gospel is what gives blogging a bad name.
January 9th, 2008 at 11:33 am
This is the first poll to be released from Florida in three weeks. That makes it more significant than those you are referring to.
January 9th, 2008 at 11:38 am
Really, it is because I just looked at RCP, and their latest poll released yesterday has Rudy up…
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/florida-primary.html
they also have Rudy up five points total. Given that I found your article on RCP, it wouldn’t have been that hard for you to check the front page and see the newly released poll they highlight that has Rudy up five points as always.
Momentum is a tricky thing for instance Huckabee rode his momentum all the way to 12% in NH. Let’s wait and see what happens in Michigan. As has been shown anything can happen.
Isolating a single poll is a sure sign of bias.
January 9th, 2008 at 11:50 am
Actually, I hadn’t noticed that poll until you mentioned it. I addressed it in an update.
The problem with Rudy’s Florida strategy is that, in conceding Iowa and N.H, he’s allowed his opponents to gain momentum. Either Romney or McCain are going to win Michigan and Huckabee will probably win South Carolina. That means three men gunning for him, all of whom can claim to actually have won a primary.
January 9th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
That depends on what happens. I agree that the strategy is flawed, and I think if he wins it will be luck. I am a Rudy supporter no less, however who exactly is gaining momentum. We have had two primaries and two winners. What if Romney wins Michigan and Thompson wins South Carolina? Then,who has momentum?
Rudy has said that the shortened season means these states aren’t as important. We will see however isolating one poll is suspect.
Your update is nonsense. His average lead in Florida remains five percent. That means that after all the primaries so far he is still exactly where he was. If Rudy wins Florida, the nomination is his. He will win Cali, New York, Illinois and New Jersey super Tuesday, and thus maintaining a five point lead as he has for months is good not bad.
January 9th, 2008 at 1:57 pm
With the exception of the poll you brought to my attention, all the polls at RCP were done 3-4 weeks ago so it’s unclear what impact events since then have had on Florida. And this is only one poll, so we don’t know if it’s an outlier or an accurate read of the current situation.
I do admit I don’t like Giuliani much, but I’m looking at this strictly from a strategic point of view. Right now, concentrating solely on Florida is looking very risky as you admit.
January 9th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
You needed a poll to tell you his Florida firewall is risky. You didn’t need a poll for that. Of course, it is risky poll or no poll. Your poll is the outlier since the average as well as the poll I cited all have Rudy up five percent.
If your piece had pointed out the riskiness of the strategy I would have taken no issue with it, however you isolated one poll and that is what I have a problem with.
January 10th, 2008 at 1:01 am
Rudy had a bad December, which is why his strategy looks so bad.
Mitt, Huck, and McCain would all lose in a general election so we’d better hope Rudy wins the nomination!
He would lead America into a new era, and would be a transformation president and I hope that the GOP is smart enough to see this.