In South Carolina of all places:
Arizona Senator John McCain, fresh from his victory in New Hampshire, has taken a narrow three-point lead over former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee in the South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows McCain at 27% and Huckabee at 24%.
That’s a significant change since last Sunday. Just before the New Hampshire vote, Huckabee was leading McCain 28% to 21%. In mid-December, Huckabee and Romney were tied for the lead with 23% of the vote while McCain was well off the pace at 12%.
The current survey finds Mitt Romney running a distant third at 16%, little changed since the previous survey
(…)
Fred Thompson, a candidate who is staking his campaign on a strong showing in South Carolina, is close behind Romney at 12%. As recently as November, Thompson was tied for the lead in South Carolina.
Rudy Giuliani is currently at 6% in South Carolina, down four points from the previous survey. Ron Paul picks up 5% support while 3% would vote for some other candidate and 6% are not sure.
The race remains potentially very fluid as just 57% are certain that they will end up voting for the candidate they currently support.
Back in 2000, of course, South Carolina was the state where George W. Bush was able to stop the McCain juggernaut. Which is why his lead right now is all the more interesting.
Yes, things can change between now and January 19th, but this could indicate that South Carolina is winnable for McCain.
One reason that may be the case is that McCain faces a different situation now than he did eight years ago. Back then, it was only him and George W. Bush. Today, the conservative vote could be divided among two, or even three, candidates. If McCain wins in Michigan as well, he could have some interesting momentum going into next Saturday.
Update: Apparently, the Rasmussen poll is not a fluke:
Following his win this week in New Hampshire, Republican presidential hopeful John McCain takes the lead in South Carolina — though Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are both close behind.
A new FOX News South Carolina Republican presidential primary poll shows McCain is now the front-runner with 25 percent, followed by Iowa caucus winner Huckabee at 18 percent and Romney at 17 percent. The results for all three top candidates are within the survey’s margin of sampling error.
Fred Thompson, who is from the neighboring state of Tennessee, captures the support of 9 percent, while Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul both receive 5 percent.
Perhaps Mac really is back.
