Once again, I tread into the dangerous and, so far unsuccessful, world of prediction.
In this case, today’s South Carolina Republican Primary and Nevada Caucuses.
First Nevada:
Democrats
- Barack Obama
- Hillary Clinton
- John Edwards
The current polls show Clinton with a slight edge, but caucuses are harder to poll than primaries and I think Obama will win based on a combination of his endorsement from the Culinary Workers Union and resentment over the efforts of Clinton’s backers in the Teacher’s Union to stop the casino caucus sites.
Republicans
- Mitt Romney
- John McCain
- Mike Huckabee
- Rudy Giuliani
- Ron Paul
- Fred Thompson
Nothing too surprising here. Nevada has over 100,000 Mormons, so that gives Romney a fairly substantial base to work with. The only change I could see to the above would be if more Ron Paul supporters come out than predicted and push him into 4th place instead of 5th.
And, finally, South Carolina:
- John McCain
- Mike Huckabee
- Fred Thompson
- Mitt Romney
- Ron Paul
- Rudy Giuliani
Late polls show Huckabee closing on McCain, but the more interesting question will be if Thompson is able to do better than expected. A strong third would be good for him, but second place is what his campaign really needs.
As always, feel free to criticize.
