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Nevada/South Carolina Post-Mortem

With the results in and John McCain, Hillary Clinton, and Mitt Romney each rightfully claiming a victory last night in their parties’ Nevada and South Carolina events, it’s time to take a look at where things stand today.

So, here’s what I think:


The Republican race is now essentially a three man race between McCain, Huckabee, and Romney. Each man can claim victories in the early January primaries, though Romney and McCain clearly have the more significant victories over Huckabee, and it’s Romney who actually leads in the all-important delegate count.

As for the rest:

Fred Thompson’s third place finish in South Carolina should be signal enough for him that it’s the end of the road. He may stick it out until Florida, hoping for a miracle of some kind, but the momentum is going to shift to McCain and Romney and Fred will likely be left in the dust.

Rudy Giuliani came in last, or next to last, in two more primaries. For any other candidate, that should be the end of it, but Rudy is clearly going to stick it out until Florida, which is looking increasingly worse for him. Rudy is a walking corpse, or at least his campaign is.

Ron Paul did a lot better than I, or anyone else, thought he would in Nevada, but it’s likely to be his high water mark.

And, oh yeah, Duncan Hunter dropped out last night. That was about three weeks too late.


Nevada proved that Hillary Clinton is back, and that the Clinton machine is as strong as we thought it was before the voting started in Iowa. Why anyone should be surprised about that is beyond me. Barack Obama will probably still win in South Carolina but, beyond that lies Florida, and then Super Tuesday and Hillary’s leading in most of those states and in the delegate count.

We may look back two or three weeks ago and realize that Barack Obama had once chance to deliver a knockout punch to the Clinton campaign in New Hampshire and, when he failed to do it, he sealed his fate.

3 Responses to “Nevada/South Carolina Post-Mortem”

  1. David Wilson says:

    I don’t think Huckabee is a front runner anymore. He will fizzle, and I don’t think an evangelical like him can do well in the primaries, outside of the bible belt that is. He can’t and won’t win the nomination.

    It’s also too bad Fred won’t be around for long, and the more I have to deal with Ron Paul’s supporters, the less I like his campaign. I don’t even know if I’m going to vote this time around.

  2. Ron Paul just doesn’t get it!…

    Despite his 2nd place finish in Nevada, Ron Paul is going nowhere fast despite what his followers want to believe.

  3. C.B. says:

    I think your analysis is right on…

    Definately a 3 man race for GOP with mccain, romney, and huckabee.. (don’t count huckabee out yet…he has stronger support that many think)…

    Hillary will defeat Obama in every contest except south carolina from this point…..

    In the end i Predict McCain v. Clinton

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