The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza shares an internal memo from the McCain campaign on how they think Super Tuesday will bring them within arms reach of the nomination:
“Senator McCain is tremendously well positioned to win the nomination of our party and will be the de facto nominee of the party following the February 5th Super Tuesday elections,” writes [Campaign Director Rick] Davis. “Governor Romney has a delegate problem the media will soon figure out.”
(…)
In the seven “winner take all” states set to vote next Tuesday — New York, Missouri Arizona, New Jersey, Utah, Connecticut and Delaware — McCain holds significant polling leads in five. No recent polling is available in Utah — almost certainly a Romney state — or Delaware, a likely McCain win.
Add up the delegates in the five states where McCain currently leads and he nets 279 of the 327 available delegates. Romney takes 33 for winning Utah. Delaware’s 15 delegates remain a toss up, according to the McCain memo.
(…)
In California, for example, where 170 delegates are at stake, Davis estimates that McCain will win 63 delegates to 44 for Romney, 22 for Giuliani and 19 for former governor Mike Huckabee (Ark.). In Georgia, the McCain campaign estimates that Huckabee will win the delegate fight with 21 followed by McCain at 12 and Romney at 10.
All told, the memo projects that McCain will walk away with 423 of the 1009 delegates up for grabs on Super Tuesday, while Romney is currently positioned to win only 143. Another 298 delegates are included in a toss up category.
While that wouldn’t seal the nomination for McCain, it would go a long way toward doing so and would make any effort by Romney and party conservatives to stop him all the more difficult.
To put it in perspective, just look at the latest poll numbers from California, New York, New Jersey, Georgia, Tennessee, Minnesota, and Illinois. McCain is leading in all of these states, in some cases substantially.
