The latest Rasmussen polls suggest that both the Republican and Democratic Primaries in California are dead heats.
First, the Republicans:
In California, Republican Primary Voters are evenly divided between John McCain and Mitt Romney. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds McCain attracting 38% of the vote and Romney earning an identical 38%. Mike Huckabee is a distant third at 10%, Ron Paul picks up 6%, and 6% say they’ll vote for some other candidate.
Earlier in the week, McCain had a small advantage over Romney. Since then, Giuliani dropped out of the race and endorsed McCain. California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger also endorsed the GOP frontrunner. While those events may have helped McCain, a conservative backlash for anybody-but-McCain appears to have helped Romney.
Romney leads 42% to 37% among conservative voters while McCain leads by eleven points among political moderates. McCain has a slight lead among men while Romney leads among women.
And, the Democrats:
In California’s Democratic Presidential Primary, Barack Obama now holds a statistically insignificant one-point lead over Hillary Clinton. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in California shows Barack Obama with 45% of the vote while Hillary Clinton earns 44%. Earlier in the week, Clinton had a three-point advantage in what has become an extraordinarily close race.
Five percent (5%) of voters are still undecided, 5% say there is still a good chance they could change their mind, and 19% say they might change their mind. Part of the indecision appears to stem from the fact that Democratic voters generally like both of their remaining candidates.
Obama now leads by ten points among men while Clinton leads by five among women. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of the Likely Primary Voters are expected to be women. Clinton leads among senior citizens while Obama has the edge among voters under 65.
Delegates to the Democratic National Convention are awarded on a proportional basis by Congressional District. Regardless of who wins, both candidates are likely to bring home a significant number of delegates.
A fact which holds true for the Republicans as well.
