Here’s how things seem to stand as of today according to the RealClear Politics poll averages.
California
Among the Republicans, John McCain seems to have a fairly solid lead in the Golden State, with an average lead of 5 percentage points. However, there is one outlier poll out this morning from Zogby which shows Mitt Romney leading by 3 points. And Drudge is reporting a yet-to-be published Rasmussen poll that has Romney and McCain tied at 38%. This may be a state where Romney can pull off a GOP upset.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton’s once commanding lead in California is gone and she now leads Obama by an average of only 2.5%, with one poll showing Obama in the lead.
On both sides, California is too close to call.
New York
This state should be an easy win for both McCain and Clinton.
Illinois
Once again, McCain leads among Republicans, while Barack Obama leads comfortably in his home state.
Missouri
John McCain leads by an average of 7% here, with Huckabee and Romney in a tight battle for second.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Obama by an average of 3.6%, but her lead shrinks the closer in time the polls are.
For Democrats, this one is too close to call.
New Jersey
McCain has a commanding lead in the Garden State (helped, no doubt by the Giuliani endorsement).
Meanwhile, Hillary continues to lead Obama by an average of 8%. But that pesky Zogby poll shows a statistical tie.
Massachusettes
Along with Utah, this appears to be the one state that Mitt Romney is guaranteed to win on Tuesday.
And Hillary continues to lead Obama here by a wide margin despite the Kennedy endorsement.
Arizona
It shouldn’t be a surprise that John McCain is in the lead here.
And Hillary leads Obama by a 6% average margin. Although one recent poll — Mason/Dixon this time — has Obama within the margin of error.
Georgia
Aided largely by a strong showing from Mike Huckabee, John McCain has taken the lead in Georgia and could well pull off a victory here.
And Barack Obama has what looks like a commanding lead in the Peach State.
Tennessee
Once again, a strong showing by Mike Huckabee is allowing John McCain to pull ahead in late polling in Tennesee.
Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, seems to have the state wrapped up.
Alabama
Another southern state, and another state where Mike Huckabee is helping John McCain.
On the Democratic side, though, the race is much tighter and within the margin of error.
Connecticut
Aided no doubt by endorsements from Rudy Giuliani and Joe Lieberman, John McCain has this state sewn up.
At one point, Hillary Clinton had a commanding lead here but it has shrunk significantly, and one poll even has Obama with a slight lead. This one is another toss-up.
Conclusion
If these numbers hold up, and I think they will, then John McCain is likely to score a significant victory on Tuesday. He will not win the nomination outright, but he could pick up as many as 700 delegates, which will put this race very close to being over. On the Democratic side, though, I think that Hillary and Obama will emerge from this race as close as ever — for the most part, all of the Democratic primary states award delegates on a proportional representation basis, meaning Obama doesn’t necessarily have to win a lot of states to get a lot of delegates.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:52 am
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