The Old Dominion is shaping up to be the site of the next battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama:
Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama, digging in for a delegate-by-delegate fight for the Democratic presidential nomination, returned to Washington yesterday with plans to make Tuesday’s Virginia primary a major battleground.
Strategists in both campaigns had once regarded Obama (Ill.) as well-positioned to sweep Virginia, Maryland and the District in next week’s first-ever regional primary. All three jurisdictions are rich in the African American, upper-income and independent voters who have sustained his campaign.
But advisers to Clinton (N.Y.) are now mapping out a strategy that does not exclude Maryland and the District but focuses heavily on fast-growing outer suburbs such as Prince William and Loudoun counties in Northern Virginia and the state’s economically struggling rural southwest, where unemployment is high among white working-class voters.
Going into the fight, it would seem that Obama has the advantage here:
Each campaign boasts strong ties to the state’s leading Democrats. Obama is backed by Gov. Timothy M. Kaine and Rep. Robert C. Scott (D), the state’s only black congressman.
Clinton’s deputy campaign manager, Mike Henry, directed Kaine’s 2005 campaign, which relied in part on winning Prince William and Loudoun. Mo Elleithee, a communications specialist, and Matt Felan, a finance official, who have extensive Virginia roots, are working on her state strategy. Mame Reilly of Alexandria, a confidante of former governor Mark R. Warner and the head of a Democratic National Committee caucus on women, is one of her most prominent supporters in the state.
Obama strategists have broken Virginia into four parts — Northern Virginia, Richmond, Charlottesville and the Tidewater area — all of which are filled with the voters they seek. He is expected to hold events in all four areas as he blitzes the region Sunday and Monday.
Kevin Griffis, an Obama spokesman, said the Illinois senator will be more appealing than Clinton to Northern Virginians, including the area’s significant number of self-described independents. In Virginia, voters are free to decide on Election Day which party’s primary they will participate in.
“Barack has proven he can do well with voters . . . in Northern Virginia,” Griffis said. The inner suburbs of Arlington and Alexandria are populated by many recent immigrants and young professionals.
Strategists say African Americans could make up 25 percent of Virginians voting in the Democratic primary. Scott, the congressman, said he expects Obama to win a solid majority of those voters but warned that he should not underestimate Clinton’s black support.
There haven’t been any published polls of Virginia Democrats that I’ve seen so it’s hard to predict what might happen on Tuesday. Nonetheless, I think that Obama will benefit if turnout is high and he’ll also benefit from the fact that the Republican race is essentially over, meaning that independents who might otherwise have voted for John McCain will, for the most part, come out and vote for him.
