Below The Beltway

As Stephen Green notes, who John McCain picks for his running mate is the most important decision any Presidential nominee has ever made:

I won’t waste your time revisiting McCain’s sins, but they’re legion. What I worry most about him isn’t any particular issue, but his temperament. McCain reminds me sometimes of a conversation I had with my grandfather back in 1988, when he was something of a bigwig in the Missouri Republican Party. During that year’s primary, he was working hard for George H.W. Bush. “Why Bush?,” I asked. “Why not Dole?” (I was a Pete DuPont man, myself.)

“Because Dole is psychotic. I don’t want his finger on the button.” Those were his exact words. I’ll never forget them. And McCain makes me think of those words every time he gets angry. And that’s just the McCain we see in public.

The good news is, the Cold War is long over, and odds are lower than ever for global thermonuclear war. But odds are much, much greater that someone, sometime in the next decade or so is going to nuke an American city. I’m not sure I want McCain determining our response to that attack.

The other good news is, such an attack is still unlikely — and even less likely before the end of a four-year McCain Administration.

The third bit of good news is, McCain is already like a 117 years old, and probably wouldn’t serve a second term.

To be blunt, callous even, it wouldn’t be surprising if McCain was unable to finish even a single term.

By all of this I mean to say, McCain’s pick for vice president might be the most important decision any nominee has ever made. If he picks the right person, he might just get my vote.

I don’t think I’m in the same boat — meaning that it would have to be a hell of a good pick for me to change my mind about John McCain — but I think there are a lot of people that are in Steve’s position, and a lot of people who would be swayed into voting Republican in 2008 if McCain picks a Vice-Presidential nominee they can live with, especially if Hillary is the Democratic nominee.

The problem is that history shows that Republican nominees haven’t done that great a job picking running mates recently. Reagan did a fairly good job picking George H.W. Bush in 1980 because Bush solidified his links with the GOP Establishment, and Bush was a pretty good Vice-President. Other than that, things don’t look good — Bush did a horrible job with Dan Quayle in 1988, and there’s simply no way that Quayle was qualified to be President if, god forbid, something had ever happened to Bush. Dole’s choice of Jack Kemp was okay, but I couldn’t help but think that Kemp sold out when he agreed to run with a loser like Dole. And the worst of all ? Bush picking Cheney in 2000, and sticking with him in 2004. It was a cop-out pick and, worst of all, it left the GOP with no heir apparent, which conversely led to John McCain as the nominee in 1988.

Let’s hope McCain does a better job.

Update: Pat Toomey reviews some of McCain’s options:

- South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford: If there is a governor anywhere in America who has demonstrated a commitment to economic conservatism, it is Mr. Sanford. The mild-mannered former congressman has been willing to wage spending fights even against members of his own party. Facing an inherited $155 million deficit, Mr. Sanford vetoed 106 spending items. When the Republican legislature over-rode all but one of his vetoes, he carried two pigs into the Capitol, one named Pork the other Barrel.

(…)

- South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint: When it comes to fighting government spending in Washington, Mr. DeMint can be found on the frontlines. Mr. DeMint, a strong believer in the power of free-market solutions, has introduced a number of bills to restrict the federal government’s reach. He’s proposed legislation that would allow Americans to buy health insurance across state lines, opening the health-care market to greater competition. He is pushing legislation that would improve on the No Child Left Behind Act by expanding school-choice options and empowering parents and local officials. Mr. DeMint has also taken aim at the burdens Sarbanes-Oxley imposed on our public companies. He wants to repeal the death tax. And he’s an ardent free trader, never wavering on the issue even when viciously attacked during his 2004 Senate race.

Indiana Rep. Mike Pence: Over seven years in Congress, the former chairman of the Republican Study Committee has established himself as a principled, determined conservative. An active defender of political speech, Mr. Pence voted against McCain-Feingold campaign-finance restrictions and led the fight against the ironically named Fairness Doctrine, designed to limit the speech of conservative talk radio. On taxes, Mr. Pence has been a strong proponent of tax cuts, calling the death tax “an economic growth killer.” Mr. Pence opposed the Republican-backed Medicare prescription drug bill, calling it “the beginning of socialized medicine in America.” Instead, he introduced the Small Business Health Insurance Act to make it easier for small businesses to purchase health insurance.

- Former Texas Sen. Phil Gramm: He is best known for the spending reduction measure that bears his name, the Gramm-Rudman law, which required automatic budget cuts if the deficit was not decreased to specified levels. But Mr. Gramm is a stellar economic conservative across the board. To quote him, he was “conservative before conservative was cool.” Before retiring from the Senate in 2002, he led fights against energy price caps, the “windfall profits” tax on oil companies, President Bill Clinton’s tax hikes and Hillary Clinton’s health-care behemoth. And he fought for welfare reform. He has fought against big-government measures like increasing mileage standards on automakers and voted against McCain-Feingold.

- Forbes Inc. CEO Steve Forbes: While Mr. Forbes is an out-of-the-box pick, the desire for an outsider this year is huge. And with voters also worried about the economy, Mr. Forbes would be a natural complement to Mr. McCain. Given Mr. McCain’s acknowledged unfamiliarity with economic issues, Mr. Forbes would provide the Arizona senator with instant credibility both with conservatives and independents who respect Mr. Forbes’ business acumen. In addition, Mr. Forbes’s ardent support for free trade, personal accounts for Social Security, the flat tax, school choice and less government overall has made him a darling of economic conservatives.

Interesting choices but I think Gramm, who I would have loved to see as a GOP nominee in the 90s, is too old and McCain needs to pick someone younger. The same is true of Forbes, who I supported when he ran. The age issue also rules Fred Thompson out, I think.

H/T: Commenter Ron