Barack Obama and John McCain continue to lead their respective parties ahead of tomorrow’s Virginia Primary:
Eve of VA Democratic Primary 2/11/08: No Late Charge from Clinton; Obama Will Get Larger Share of Delegates: 24 hours till votes are counted in the Virginia Democratic Primary, Barack Obama is positioned to capture a majority of convention delegates, according to SurveyUSA’s final pre-primary poll, conducted for WJLA-TV Washington DC, WDBJ-TV Roanoke and WTVR-TV Richmond. Today it’s Obama 60%, Clinton 38%, not materially different from a SurveyUSA tracking poll released 72 hours ago, which showed Obama 59%, Clinton 39%. Voters in the DC suburbs moved to Obama over the weekend, increasing his advantage there. Voters in the Shenandoah moved to Clinton over the weekend, increasing her advantage there.
Except for the fact that there are more voters in Northern Virginia than the Shenandoah.
As for the Republicans, the race has tightened somewhat:
Eve of VA GOP Primary 2/11/08: Huckabee Closes-In On McCain: Big movement in Virginia following Mike Huckabee’s strong showing over the weekend in Louisiana, Kansas and Washington state. On the eve of the Virginia Republican Primary, it’s John McCain 48%, Mike Huckabee 37%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released 72 hours ago, McCain is down 9, Huckabee is up 12. McCain had led by 32, now leads by 11. Among Conservative voters, McCain had led by 21, now trails by 5. Among Pro-Life voters, McCain had led by 20 points, now trails by 6. Among voters in Southeast VA, McCain had led by 28, now trails by 12. Among voters focused on Immigration, McCain had led by 16, now trails by 17. Among voters who attend religious services regularly, McCain had led by 24, now trails by 2.
Is this an indication of a Huckabee surge ? To some extent, yes, but I don’t think that any such surge is going to be enough to overcome McCain’s advantage in the population centers of the state.
H/T: Virginia Virtucon
