The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza previews the showdown between Leslie Byrne and Gerry Connolly:
The long wait to see what the future held for Rep. Tom Davis (R) is over. Late last month Davis announced he would leave this northern Virginia seat, a decision that creates another major target for Democrats. The district went only narrowly for President Bush in 2004 and demographic changes in the state over the last few years seem to suggest the area is growing more and more Democratic. Democrats seem headed for a primary for the ages with state Sen. Leslie Bryne, who held the seat from 1992 to 1994, preparing to face off against Gerry Connolly, chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors. In an attempt to preserve their chances of holding the seat, Republicans — including Davis — are uniting behind businessman Keith Fimian, who had already raised $700,000 by the end of 2007, a total that included a $327,000 personal loan.
Odds right now seem to suggest that the winner of the Connolly-Byrne fight will be the 11th District’s next Representative.
After an 11point victory last midterm in an environment poisonous for most republicans, why would the odds be in favor of a democrat. What polling has anyone seen to indicate that this district has actually changed by more than 11 points?
It seems absurd to me that anyone would give this seat to one side or the other. Am I missing something?
Thomas,
Tom Davis won by 11 points because he was Tom Davis and he had a weak opponent.