The conventional wisdom is that 2008 is going to be a Democratic year; that, no matter who the nominee is, the Democrats are going to win the White House based largely on the fact that the Bush Administration has ruined the GOP’s reputation.
But what if the conventional wisdom is wrong ?
Consider, for example, this poll from one of the most important states in the last two General Elections:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Florida shows John McCain holding a six-percentage point lead over Hillary Clinton and an even larger lead—sixteen percentage points—over Barack Obama. It’s McCain 49% Clinton 43% and McCain 53% Obama 37%. This dynamic is the opposite of what we have found in most other states where Obama typically outperforms Clinton in general election match-ups.
The Florida results for a Clinton-McCain match-up are fairly similar to other battleground states–the race is competitive, Clinton does better among women than men, and McCain leads among unaffiliated voters.
However, the poll contains hints that suggest the controversy over Florida’s convention delegates may be hurting Obama. Most notably, just 55% of Sunshine State Democrats say they would vote for Obama over McCain. Thirty-one percent (31%) say they would vote for McCain. These results are especially striking given that Obama leads McCain among unaffiliated voters in the state.
Obviously it’s way to early to say what this means, but, if McCain could hold on to states like Florida and Ohio he just might be able to win.
