Forget about all those national polls pitting McCain, Obama, and Clinton against each other. Come November, the only think that’s going to matter is the Electoral College and, right now, the Democrats have a decided advantage:
If the Presidential election were held today, the Democratic candidate would be poised to win 284 Electoral Votes. That’s 14 more than the minimum needed to capture the White House. The Republican candidate could expect to win 216 Electoral Votes while 38 more would be in the Toss-up category.
If “leaners” are not included in the totals, the Democrats lead 248 Electoral Votes to 189. To reach the magic number of 270 and win the election, the Democratic candidate would need to win 22 of the 101 Electoral Votes from states that are Toss-Ups or Lean modestly towards one party or the other.
These results are from the Rasmussen Reports 2008 Balance of Power Calculator and will be updated daily until Election Day.
This will be an interesting number to watch as the months go on. Here’s the list of Rasmussen’s Electoral Vote breakdown:
Safely Democratic: California (55), Connecticut (7), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), and Vermont (3).
Likely Democratic: Delaware (3), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (15), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Washington (11), and Wisconsin (10).
Leans Democratic: Iowa (7), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), and Ohio (20).
Toss-Up: Colorado (9), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), and Virginia (13).
Leans Republican: Florida (27)
Likely Republican: Arkansas (6), West Virginia (5)
Safely Republican: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), and Wyoming (3).
It’s not looking too good for the GOP right now.
