DJ over at The Right Wing Liberal argues that I and other pundits who are writing the obituary for the Clinton for President campaign are underestimating her ability to bounce back:
Two days ago, I explained in what I thought was painstaking detail why the Democratic race was not over. To summarize, I noted that Clinton was still ahead in Texas and Ohio; Obama had no more primaries or caucuses between now and then to help reverse this; Obama was finally getting serious scrutiny; the second-look effect would hurt him at just the wrong time; and finally, independents in Texas will be drawn to McCain’s effort to put the stake in Mike Huckabee once and for all.
D.J. is right that the race isn’t completely over, but, given what we know now I think it’s fairly clear that Clinton has a much tougher, and far less likely, road to victory than Obama does.
First of all, there’s no guarantee that she can get the wins she needs in both Texas and Ohio. As I noted on Thursday, two polls show the Texas race statistically tied; and while Clinton continues to lead in Ohio, her lead is half of what it was only two weeks ago. The trend, to date, has been one that shows Obama rising while Hillary stays about even. If that continues through this week, then there is a good chance that Obama would win one of the big states on March 4th, most likely Texas, and that Clinton’s margin of victory in Ohio would be so small as to be meaningless.
Second, as we’ve all learned this year, what matters in this race in the delegate count. Currently, Obama holds a lead in delegates even after taking into account the Superdelegates that have indicated a preference. Like nearly every other Democratic primary, Texas and Ohio award delegates on a proportional basis and Texas in particular has a byzantine process for awarding delegates that includes a primary and a caucus.
This favors Obama.
If he wins Texas, even by a small margin, he will win the delegates count. If he loses Texas, he still has an excellent chance of taking the most delegates, if not a substantial portion, thanks to the caucus. In Ohio, anything other than a Clinton blowout would result in a fairly even distribution of delegates. Meanwhile, Obama looks likely to win Vermont and Rhode Island, which hold primaries on the March 4th as well.
The road for Clinton is far more difficult. She needs to win Texas and Ohio by wider margins than she’s leading in the polls now and she needs to do well in the caucus portion of the Texas primary, and her campaign has not won a single caucus with the exception of Nevada all the way back in January.
Over the next several days, we’ll start getting a better idea of where March 4th will take us. Clearly, Clinton’s increasingly negative and combative tone is a sign that she’s hoping for a way to turn this race around on a dime. That’s what she needs to do, and, at this point, going negative on Obama is the only chance she has to do it.
It’s an incredibly risky strategy, though, and could backfire on her the same way it did in South Carolina. The race isn’t over yet, but it’s looking like it will be on March 5th, and it’s looking like Hillary will be on the losing end.
