The final set of pre-primary polls in Texas and Ohio are out and, with the exception of a few outliers, they show a tight race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in both states.
I’m ignoring the Republican race at this point because it is pretty clear that McCain is going to win by 15 points or more in all four states that are up tomorrow.
Ohio
Though the race is much tighter than it ever was, all the polls, with one exception show Hillary Clinton holding on to her lead here. First, the Rasmussen poll shows her with a six point lead:
After two weeks in which Barack Obama steadily gained ground in Ohio, Hillary Clinton appears to have reversed the trend. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Ohio shows Clinton with 50% of the vote while Obama attracts 44%. Six percent (6%) remain undecided. In addition to the 6% of voters who remain undecided, 4% say there’s a good chance they could change their mind before voting.
For most of the past two weeks, Clinton had been stuck at the 47% to 48% level of support in Ohio while Obama steadily improved his standing from 38% right after the Wisconsin Primary to 45% last Thursday night. In that Thursday poll, Obama had pulled to within two points of Clinton. This is the first Rasmussen Reports election poll to show Clinton expanding her lead.
The Ohio Poll also shows Clinton with a real lead and support above 50%:
Heading into an Ohio primary that has the potential to revive her presidential campaign, Hillary Clinton is holding onto a solid lead in the Buckeye state, according to a new poll of likely primary voters there.
Clinton receives support from 51 percent of probable Ohio Democratic primary voters while Barack Obama has the support of 42 percent of the same group, according to a new Ohio Poll released Monday (.pdf). The poll, conducted between Feb. 28 and March 2, shows Clinton increasing her support in Ohio since the previous poll a week ago, which showed her leading Obama 47-39.
Two polls — from Suffolk University and SurveyUSA — even show Clinton regaining her double digit lead. Meanwhile, the Quinnipac University polls shows Hillary leading Obama 49% to 45% and the Zogby Poll, which is the outlier noted above actually has the two candidates statistically tied.
Barring a massive pro-Obama turnout, which is certainly possible, it looks like Hillary will eke out a victory here as I predicted this morning.
Texas
The polls out of Texas, again with the exception of one outlier, all show Obama with a slight lead in the Lone Star State.
First, Rasmussen shows him with a statistically insignificant 1 point lead:
The winner of the Texas Presidential Primary will be determined by turnout and late deciders.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey, conducted Sunday, finds Barack Obama with a statistically insignificant one-point lead over Hillary Clinton. It’s Obama 48% Clinton 47%. Five percent (5%) are undecided and 6% say they could still change their mind.
The Zogby poll has Obama head by three points, as does Survey USA, and one poll, the outlier, has Clinton up by 6.
This is going to be a close one, but I still think that Obama will pull out a small win in the primary and a big win in the caucus.
