Here’s a quick recap of the predictions I posted yesterday.
Republicans
John McCain will sweep all four of today’s primaries and will win enough delegates to clinch the GOP nomination. The logic for Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul to stay in the race, such as it was, will not exist after tonight.
Democrats
Obama will win Vermont handily and Texas narrowly, but he’ll pick up a net gain of delegates in the caucus part of Texas’ byzantine process.
Clinton will win Rhode Island and narrowly win Ohio.
On the delegate count, Clinton’s net gain of delegates will be under ten and may end up being close to zero. But, apparently, she’ll stay in the race if my prediction turns out to be correct.
Signs To Look For
1. If Clinton loses Rhode Island by some chance, it could be a signal that tonight will be a very bad night for her. Same thing for Obama and Vermont.
2. If Clinton loses Ohio, regardless of what happens in Rhode Island, then her chances of winning the nomination are essentially zero.
3. If things end up essentially status quo ante like I think they will, look for Chris Matthews head to explode all over Tim Russert’s dry erase board.
March 6th, 2008 at 12:16 am
You were close, and the Obama campaign had it closer, as they knew that he would lose three races, and that he would win in Vermont and most likely the Texas Caucus, and this did happen. What no one thought is that Hillary would take this as a victory with her little 16 delegate gain which still gives Obama the lead in delegates and still he has enough superdelegate committments to remain the lead in the end result. Clinton is still behind and has not move ahead at all. What is the big “She is in this for the long-haul”? Nothing has really changed.