SurveyUSA has a new mega-poll out where they try to estimate how an Electoral College battle between the remaining candidates would work our.
In a McCain-Clinton matchup, they come up with 276 Electoral Votes for Clinton and 262 for McCain.
Here’s the map:
The biggest difference between this projection and the 2004 Electoral Map are the loss by the GOP of Ohio (20 Electoral Votes), Arkansas (6 Electoral Votes), New Mexico (5 Electoral Votes), and Florida (27 Electoral Votes).
In Ohio, they show Clinton leading McCain by 10 points and, in Florida, they show her ahead by 9 points.
Under SurveyUSA’s projections, the loss of just one of those two big states is enough to tilt the Presidency to Clinton.
While these numbers are early, they make clear where the battles are going to be, and it will be the same places that we’ve been worrying about since 2000.
Results of a McCain-Obama match are discussed here.
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March 6th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
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March 6th, 2008 at 5:19 pm
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March 7th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
[...] a set of SurveyUSA polls that showed the hypothetical Electoral College breakdown in a race between John McCain and Hillary Clinton and one between McCain and Barack [...]