In addition to the hypothetical match-up between John McCain and Hillary Clinton, SurveyUSA also takes a look at an Electoral College breakdown in a race between McCain and Barack Obama.
And, the results are different, but not any better:
In this scenario, the Republicans actually hold on to Florida — with the poll showing McCain leading Obama by a very slim 2 percentage point. And, McCain gets Arkansas back without the former First Lady on the ticket.
But, McCain loses Nevada (5 Electoral Votes), Colorado (9 Electoral Votes), Iowa (7 Electoral Votes), North Dakota (3 Electoral Votes), Michigan (17 Electoral Votes) and in what would by a first for a GOP candidate since Barry Goldwater, Virginia (13 Electoral Votes). To be fair, they put Virginia in Obama’s column even though the poll shows the two candidates virtually tied with 6% undecided, but that’s still a substantial base from which Obama could build in the Old Dominion.
These are the types of polls that need to be given attention. The national popularity polls are instructive, but, as we learned in 2000, it’s not the popular vote that decides who the next President will be.
March 6th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
[…] of a McCain-Obama match are discussed here. […]
March 8th, 2008 at 7:18 pm
I believe in the Clinton-McCain match up, Clinton will lose Minnesota and or Florida. Why?? If McCain chooses Charlie Crist of Fla. to be his running mate, that will seal Ms. Clinton’s fate. To a lesser degree, if he chooses Pawlenty of Minnesota, I believe McCain will squeak by with a win in that state. This will of course alter your projection and make McCain the next occupant of the White House.
As far as an Obama/McCain match up, I’ve said all along that McCain would have an easier time of beating Obama. I stick to that conclusion. I believe McCain would win California and most if not all of the mid-west, New Jersey and of course Florida and Pennsylvania.