Last week, I noted that recent polls in Ohio and Pennsylvania showed John McCain beating both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, albeit by statistically insignificant margins in some cases. While the leads are small, they do show surprising strength on McCain’s part in two states that are rich in Electoral Votes and which have fluctuated between “blue” and “red” status in recent years.
Now, a new poll shows McCain with similar strength in another swing state:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Florida shows John McCain holding a four-percentage point lead over Barack Obama and a seven- percentage point lead over Hillary Clinton. It’s McCain 47% Obama 43% and McCain 47% Clinton 40%. For Obama, this reflects a significant improvement compared to polling in February. For Clinton, little has changed.
The top three issues in the state are the economy, the War in Iraq, and National Security. Forty-seven percent (47%) say the economy is most important, 17% name Iraq, and 11% National Security. Nine percent (9%) say Immigration is the top issue while 5% say Health Care.
Not surprisingly, of course, there appears to be little evidence of similar McCain strength in states like California, New York, and Connecticut, which have gone Democratic every year since at least 1992.
But Republicans weren’t going to win those states anyway.
If McCain can remain competitive in places like Ohio and Florida, though, while the Democrats continue to fight amongst themselves, then this election could turn out a lot different than anyone, myself included, thought it would in January.
