Below The Beltway

Too Conservative has a great post up today handicapping the races in all eleven of Virginia’s Congressional Districts.

Here’s how thing look in Northern Virginia’s three Congressional Districts:

VA-08: Congressman Jim Moran (D) vs. Mark Ellmore (R)/Basil Mossaidis (R)/Dianne Kelly (R)/Amit Singh (R)

2006 results: Moran (D) 66%, O’Donoghue (R) 31%

2004 results: Moran (D) 60%, Cheney (D) 37%

PVI: D +14

Jim Moran routinely attracts challengers, due to his often publicized statements about the Jewish-American lobby in particular, but this district was built for a Democrat, and thus remains uncompetitive. I don’t know much beyond a Google search on Mossaidis, Kelly, and Singh (who just got into the race in the last few months), but I’ve met and seen Mark Ellmore several times and I’ve been impressed by his level of commitment. In a favorable GOP year, he might even be considered a dark horse candidate for an upset. However, 2008 is not likely to be a favorable GOP year, and the NRSC has virtually no resources to help turn the tide.

Outlook: Safe Democratic Retention

This one appears to be a no-brainer. VA-08 has been solidly Democratic since the early 90’s and Moran, while is a blowhard and idiot, has delivered for the District what they want. I don’t see the eventual Republican nominee doing any better than Moran’s previous opponents, especially in this political climate.

VA-10: Congressman Frank Wolf (R)/Vern McKinley (R) vs. Judy Feder (D)/Michael Turner (D)

2006 results: Wolf (R) 57%, Feder (D) 41%

2004 results: Wolf (R) 64%, Socas(D) 36%

PVI: R +5

Both Wolf and Feder have attracted minor primary challenges, but the heavyweight bout is the rematch between these two from 2006. At least, that’s the kind of attention it attracts from some in the media and blogosphere, despite the fact that Feder is obviously the wrong kind of candidate to run in this ex-urban district.

If there was ever a year where Wolf had a chance to lose it was 2006. Despite heavy coverage and being on equal ground financially, Feder wound up just short of Wolf. Sixteen points short, that is, attracting just 41% of the vote in a district that John Kerry won 44% of the vote just two years earlier.

This cycle, Wolf’s fundraising has improved, and with a Republican like John McCain at the top of the ticket, Wolf should have no problem maintaining his firm grip on Republicans, Independents, moderates, and soft Democrats alike, ensuring that one of the best Congressman will return for another term in the 111th Congress.

Outlook: Safe Republican Retention

Again, this seems like another no-brainer. Beating a long-term incumbent in a party primary is near impossible and, while McKinley looks interesting, it seems unlikely that he’ll be able to do it here. And, given that Wolf has already beaten Feder once and that she has not demonstrated herself to be a very competent candidate, I think Frank Wolf can count on being back in office in January 2009.

VA-11: Keith Fimian (R)/Skip Dale (R) vs. Gerry Connolly (D)/Leslie Byrne (D)/Doug Denneny (D)/Lori Alexander (D)

2006 results: Davis (R) 55%, Hurst (D) 44%

2004 results: Davis (R) 60%, Longmeyer (D) 38%

PVI: R +1

This will be one of the most competitive races in the country, so it is by far the most competitive in the state. With an open seat in a swing district, the DCCC will likely invest heavily here (and not much elsewhere in Virginia). Which is good news for Democrats, because so far Connolly and Byrne haven’t found much success in raising money compared to business owner Keith Fimian, who is the presumptive nominee for the Republicans. Last I heard, Skip Dale was still running but someone can correct me if this is not true.

The upcoming primary between Connolly and Byrne will be epic. Unlike the lackluster Miller vs. Webb primary in 2006, this one features pro-business money versus labor union activism, which promises at least the whiff of blood, if not a full-on slugfest. Coupled with that is the presence of Doug Denneny, who doesn’t stand a chance to win, but having been recently endorsed by VoteVets.org, might see some money float into the district on his behalf. Two polls have been conducted, each on behalf of a candidate, showing conflicting results, but nonetheless proving that the primary is wide open, and a tough campaign will be necessary for winning it.

Until polling is released, it’s hard to gauge how well Fimian will do in the district, despite outgoing Rep. Tom Davis’s support and the establishment (and NRSC) lining up behind him. His success at gaining individual donations suggests that he’s made quite an impact in the district for someone who has never run for public office before. Either way, Fimian has enough money available (both in donations and in self-funding) to ensure that this will be a competitive race for every vote.

Outlook: Toss-up

The 11th District will, I think, be heavily influenced by what happens at the top of the ticket. Coattails from Obama or McCain could have a significant impact on what happens in the Congressional race. Looking at things right now, though, it seems that Fimian will have an uphill battle against either Byrne or Connolly and will need all the help from Davis’s machine (which, remember, couldn’t even keep Davis’s wife in office) that he can get.