The latest example is the Wolverine State:
While Democrats are still fighting about whether and how Michigan’s delegates will be seated at their party’s national convention, early polling suggests that John McCain could be very competitive in the state when voters go to the polls in November.
The latest Rasmussen Reports poll in Michigan shows McCain attracting 43% of the vote when matched against Barack Obama. Obama earns 42% while 8% say they would vote for a third-party candidate and 7% remain undecided.
If Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, it’s McCain 45% Clinton 42%. In that match-up, 10% opt for a third-party candidate while 4% are undecided.
McCain is viewed favorably by 55% of the state’s voters. Obama earns positive reviews from 50%, Clinton from 47%. The Republican hopeful leads both Democrats among unaffiliated voters and also benefits from solid Republican support.
The current results are similar to those from a month ago when McCain had a three-point edge over both Democrats. Nationally, McCain has a slight advantage over both Democrats in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
Michigan has cast its Electoral College votes for the Democrats in four straight Presidential elections and it would be difficult for Obama or Clinton to reach the White House without carrying the state. However, the economically devastated state has been trending Republican in recent elections—Bill Clinton won Michigan by thirteen points in 1996, Al Gore won by five in 2000, and John Kerry won by just three points in 2004.
Keep in mind that this is happening in a year that was supposed to be bad for Republicans and during the beginning of what has all the marks of a recession. If McCain can buck those trends, he might actually have a shot at winning this thing.