Dan Balz designates three critical dates in the ongoing Clinton-Obama fight:
April 22, the day of the Pennsylvania primary, is Clinton’s next change to make a strong case for staying in the race to the end. Conversely, it is a critical opportunity for Obama to show that he continues to expand his appeal within the party, as someone who hopes to become the nominee must do.
May 6 is when North Carolina and Indiana hold their primaries. It has gained significance over the past two weeks as a potential make-or-break day for both candidates, perhaps the only date between now and the end of the primaries that could deliver a seismic jolt to the trajectory of the nomination battle.
July 1 is Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean’s deadline for superdelegates to get off the fence and declare whether they will vote for Clinton or Obama.
When it comes to 22 April, Balz notes, Clinton needs a bigger victory than she’s gotten yet:
Clinton needs Ohio plus — an outsized victory that silences for a time any talk that she should get out. As Ohio showed, there is nothing like a decisive victory to change the conversation.
If Obama is able to cut into Clinton’s lead in the Keystone State, he could “win” even if he loses.
As for May 6:
Nobody expects a significant change in the race before Pennsylvania and, given Clinton’s prospects of victory there, Obama loyalists may have a harder time immediately after that primary to argue that she should quit.
That could leave it to voters in North Carolina and Indiana to change the status quo. Obama is favored in North Carolina and The Wall Street Journal reported Monday morning that the entire congressional delegation is moving to endorse him. If he wins Indiana as well, a state that fits neither candidate perfectly, he will then argue that he has broken through. At that point, Clinton would face real pressure.
And that leaves us with July 1st and Howard Dean’s non-mandatory deadline for the superdelegates to decide how they’re going to lean.
It’s going to be an interest three months.
