Below The Beltway

On top of polls from Rasmussen, Public Policy Polling, and American Research Group all showing the race in Pennsylvania tightening significantly, the latest Quinnipac University poll shows Barack Obama within six percentage points of Hillary Clinton:

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is catching up with New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary and now trails 50 – 44 percent among likely primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 50 – 41 percent Sen. Clinton lead in an April 2 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.

In this latest survey, one of the biggest shifts is among women who went from 54 – 37 percent for Clinton April 2 to 54 – 41 percent for her today. A look at other groups shows:

* White voters for Clinton 56 – 38 percent, down from 59 – 34 percent last week.
* Black voters back Obama 75 – 17 percent, compared to 73 – 11 percent.
* Men are for Obama 48 – 44 percent, compared to a 46 – 46 percent tie last week.
* Voters under 45 go with Obama 55 – 40, while older voters back Clinton 55 – 38 percent.

“With two weeks to go, Sen. Barack Obama is knocking on the door of a major political upset in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary. Obama is not only building on his own constituencies, but is taking away voters in Sen. Hillary Clinton’s strongest areas – whites including white women, voters in the key swing Philadelphia suburbs and those who say the economy is the most important issue in the campaign,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

MSNBC’s First Read notes the sense of deja vu:

Exactly two weeks until the primary there, it seems a lot like we saw in the lead up to Ohio: Obama is gaining ground on Clinton almost every day (while racking a superdelegate per day, too). And not only are polls closing, but Obama’s financial advantage on the ground is growing, with SEIU dumping nearly a million dollars. Deja Ohio? Yet as we’ve asked before: Will the result be different this time? Will Obama keep the race as close as some of the polls are beginning to suggest? The answer could very influence whether the Dem race lasts through June (and beyond) or if thing might be over in May.

Joe Gandleman, however, notes a potential game-changer:

Just be sure you watch Saturday’s debate between Clinton and Obama. Will the departure (partially that is) of controversial chief Clinton strategist Mark Penn signal a shift in how Clinton presents herself at the debate? Will she be on attack, going after Obama at every instance, or will she use the debate as a chance to present a positive image of herself as both a potential leader and as a person?

Or will it be basically the same incarnations of Clinton (the attack Clinton or the low-key Clinton) that we’ve seen before. After all Penn — even though he is supposedly gone from her campaign and has come under intense fire from Clinton supporters and even some within the Clinton campaign organization — will be helping prepare Clinton for the Saturday debate.

Frankly, I’ll be surprised if the debate really changes anything. They haven’t so far.

The real question, I think, is what we’ll be talking about during the last two weeks leading up to the primary. Since TexOhio, we’ve gone through two separate cycles. First, it was all about Barack Obama and Jeremiah Wright. Obama gave his Philadelphia speech and that seemed to be the end of it. Outside of the right-wing talk show realm, there hasn’t been much talk about Wright for weeks now and it’s hard to believe that it will have any more of an impact than it has already had; which, according to the polls, has been relatively minimal.

Then, it was all about Hillary and her three instances of lying.

It’s possible that the debate will set the narrative for the next fourteen days, but, unless one of these candidates goes off-script and goes on the attack, it seems unlikely.