A new poll from Time Magazine shows Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama by six percentage points:
Backed by more than half of all white female Democrats, Hillary Clinton holds a six point lead over Barack Obama in Pennsylvania, a new statewide poll by TIME reveals. When leaners — voters who have not firmly decided whom to vote for but are leaning one way or the other — are added in, Clinton’s six point lead grows to eight points, 49% to 41%.
Clinton leads Obama overall 44% to 38% among all Democrats in the TIME survey, but enjoys a notably broader margin of support among white Democratic women: 56% to Obama’s 25%. More evenly split, by contrast, are white male Democrats, who prefer Clinton by a narrower margin of 44% to 36%. The survey, conducted by Abt SRBI from April 2-6 of 676 Democratic primary voters, comes less than two weeks before the crucial April 22 primary.
There also appears to be a measure of deep anti-Obama sentiment in Clinton’s Keystone State coalition. Roughly a quarter of Clinton voters — 26%, the poll found — say they “would be more likely” to vote for John McCain in the general election if Obama is eventually the Democratic nominee. By contrast, only 16% of Obama’s backers report they would be likely to vote for McCain if Clinton emerged as the party’s nominee.
At the same time, an Insider Advantage poll shows Hillary ahead by ten points:
April 9, 2008 — A new InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion poll shows Sen. Hillary Clinton regaining some ground she’d previously lost to Sen. Barack Obama in the Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary race.
Here are the results of our new poll:
Clinton 48%
Obama 38%
Undecided 13%*
The survey was conducted April 8 among 681 likely registered voters in the April 22 Pennsylvania Democratic primary. The data have been weighted for age, race and gender with a margin of error of +/-3.6%.
While there has been a tightening, Clinton is continuing to hold on to her lead here. Absent something big happening, I expect her to win on April 22nd, though the results aren’t likely to change the delegate math at all.
April 10th, 2008 at 7:48 pm
Poll Report: Slipping Away…
Note: Given my new schedule, and how much I focus on polling analysis, I’m going to try something a little new. As opposed to throwing up a post on a poll everytime one pops up, I’m going to try and consolidate all the polling that catch…