The Third Party Watch blog is touting a poll commissioned by Bob Barr’s exploratory committee showing him with 7% support nationally:
In a survey commissioned last week by the Bob Barr 2008 Presidential Exploratory Committee, seven percent of likely voters responded that they would vote for the former Georgia congressman for president if he were on the ballot in November. Shortly after Ross Perot announced he was re-entering the presidential race in October 1992, he polled at seven percent. Barr is considering whether to seek the nomination of the Libertarian Party for president.
According to the latest poll, Barr enjoys 36 percent name recognition. When questions were asked reminding voters about Barr’s role in the impeachment of former President Bill Clinton, and about the reasons why Barr left the Republican Party to join the Libertarian Party, Barr’s seven percent rose to nine percent against Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain. He polled at eleven percent against Hillary Clinton and John McCain.
Sounds good right ? Sounds like a candidacy that might have an impact on the election, right ?
Well, as always, the devil is in the details. And, in this case, the details are the poll methodology:
The telephone survey of 1,000 ‘Likely Voters’ was conducted by Pulse Opinion Research on April 3, 2008. Pulse Opinion Research, LLC is an independent public opinion research firm using automated polling methodology and procedures licensed from Rasmussen Reports, LLC. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.
Honestly, I’m not sure what they mean by “automated polling methodolgy,” but the few polls I’ve seen this election cycle that have used it have not proven to be reliable.
I’d like to think that Barr could stir up some trouble in November, only because trouble desperately needs to be stirred up, but this poll alone isn’t evidence of it.
Yet.
April 11th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
Let’s see the internals of this poll.
April 11th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
It’s the methodology that bothers me.
Zogby released some polls earlier in the primary season using this “automated” method and they ended up being wildly off track. This may be a valid polling method, but I’m not sure that the sampling is right yet.
And, I’ve never heard of this polling company before.
That said, if Bob Barr can cost John McCain the election, then he’s got my vote !